Yes position
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $2.61
- Potential payout
- $149.01
- Potential profit
- $146.4
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Polymarket Trader
0xd1f4531dd0edfC4d5eB3C138D51f232Eee597a37-1763211015395
0xd1f4531dd0edfc4d5eb3c138d51f232eee597a37
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $416.31
- Realized PnL
- $269.03
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $2.91
- Potential payout
- $109.67
- Potential profit
- $106.76
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$1.09
Yes position
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.8%
- Current value
- $2.67
- Potential payout
- $97.03
- Potential profit
- $94.36
- Multiplier
- 36.36x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
EU dissolves before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $2.31
- Potential payout
- $94.16
- Potential profit
- $91.85
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.69
Yes position
Fed abolished before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.08
- Potential payout
- $71.83
- Potential profit
- $70.75
- Multiplier
- 66.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $33.64
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $1.37
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.41
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $34.98
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $0.39
No position
Will Сириус be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.18
No position
Will Chad Bianco finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in June?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $35
- User PnL
- -$34.59
No position
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $27.64
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $28
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.48
Yes position
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $27.06
- Potential payout
- $28
- Potential profit
- $0.94
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $25.71
- Potential payout
- $25.71
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.21
No position
Will John Thompson Parker advance from the CA-37 primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $22.94
- Potential payout
- $22.94
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.6%
- Current value
- $16.35
- Potential payout
- $17.66
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
No position
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Current value
- $13.63
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0.37
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.27
No position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?
Ends Jul 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Current value
- $13.79
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0.21
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Y
Yes position
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.06
No position
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Iván Cepeda win between 50% and 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $1.05
No position
Will Sonia Kacker advance from the CA-26 primary election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $14
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $0.31
No position
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14
- Potential profit
- $14
- User PnL
- -$13.51
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68.8
No position
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.62
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.47
No position
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.8
Yes position
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.39
No position
Will Trump release a new Russia x Ukraine peace plan by November 21?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.2
No position
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday?
Ends Nov 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
China coup attempt before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Multiplier
- 25.97x
- User PnL
- $6.09
Yes position
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.6%
- Multiplier
- 18.02x
- User PnL
- $6.05
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.01
Yes position
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.32
No position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.76
No position
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
Ends Jan 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.72
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.18
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Dec 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Ends Dec 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.85
Yes position
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $3.58
No position
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.49
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $3.41
No position
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.37
No position
Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?
Ends Feb 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.29
No position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.23
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,249,000 and $1,259,000 on May 31?No 99% 7 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No 97.9% 6.99 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?No 98.4% 7 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?No 96% 7 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 65% 83.27 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 60.1% 83.25 shares
- US strike on Cuba by January 31?Yes 2.1% 65.28 shares
- US strike on Mexico by January 31?Yes 3.2% 67.23 shares
- US strike on Cuba by January 31?Yes 5.7% 80 shares
- US strike on Cuba by January 31?Yes 3% 137.11 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ETUp 95% 5 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ETUp 94% 2.99 shares