Polymarket Trader

trader-d20a6695

0xd20a6695a216f3a6e16adeb851a04bb9c315098d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $132.93
Realized PnL: -$27.13
Win rate: 47.4%
Open positions: 22
Closed positions: 19
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $110.79
Potential profit: $109.85
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$7.47

Yes position

Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $25.74
Potential payout: $73.55
Potential profit: $47.81
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $11.49

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $11.19
Potential payout: $58.91
Potential profit: $47.72
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$6.36

Yes position

Megaquake by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $55.78
Potential profit: $55.45
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$1.84

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $49.37
Potential profit: $48.68
Multiplier: 71.43x
User PnL: -$8.41

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 21%
Current value: $7.31
Potential payout: $34.82
Potential profit: $27.51
Multiplier: 4.76x
User PnL: -$10.6

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $33.34
Potential profit: $31.96
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 82%
Current value: $25.25
Potential payout: $30.79
Potential profit: $5.54
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $7.42

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $2.36
Potential payout: $22.5
Potential profit: $20.14
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.79

No position

Will there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $14.87
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $2.11

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $13.43
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.73

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $13.94
Multiplier: 15.04x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $12.66
Potential profit: $12.65
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.99

No position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $10.21
Potential payout: $11.8
Potential profit: $1.59
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $1.58
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $3.43
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$0.93

No position

Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $3.25
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $1.75
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $4.79
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$1.24

No position

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $4.99
Potential profit: $1.57
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $4.45
Potential payout: $4.46
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.86

No position

Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 87.2%
Current value: $3.35
Potential payout: $3.84
Potential profit: $0.49
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 59%
Current value: $1.71
Potential payout: $2.9
Potential profit: $1.19
Multiplier: 1.69x
User PnL: $0.48

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.75

Over position

Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.2

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.9

Yes position

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.67

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will Panama be the worst-placed Central American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.54

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.51

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Under position

France vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$1.34

No position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$17.28

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$19.67

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

France vs. Sweden: France O/U 0.5

Under 9% 11.12 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 615 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 385 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 625 shares
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 375 shares
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?

No 0.1% 1,000 shares
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29?

Down 84% 5 shares
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31?

Yes 21% 2.5 shares
No one announced as next James Bond?

No 7.9% 12.66 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 42.4% 9.99 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 29.4% 5 shares