N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Current value
- $291.8
- Potential payout
- $367.04
- Potential profit
- $75.24
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $42.56
Polymarket Trader
essence19910705
0xd20edcca8618ac8fd0c6bcc6d3b880656500b050
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.22K
- Realized PnL
- $27.64
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $248.76
- Potential payout
- $268.93
- Potential profit
- $20.17
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $18.27
N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $250.06
- Potential payout
- $267.44
- Potential profit
- $17.38
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $20.06
No position
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $218.78
- Potential payout
- $252.92
- Potential profit
- $34.14
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $35.21
N
No position
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $212.68
- Potential payout
- $235
- Potential profit
- $22.32
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $12.93
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.22
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.85
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $4.12
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.6
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.44
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.54
No position
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.88
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.61
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.55
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $0.5
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.38
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82%
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $0.17
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.18
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.41
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran full airspace closure by July 15?No 86% 267.44 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 92% 250 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No 71% 80 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by July 31?No 85% 235 shares
- Iran full airspace closure by August 31?No 66% 227.27 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No 73% 130.14 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No 72% 75 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No 72.3% 47.79 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 86% 40.2 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 84% 24.43 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 75% 9.8 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 87% 172.41 shares