Peasantfarmer

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $9.07
Potential payout: $106.69
Potential profit: $97.62
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.73

Yes position

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 14.7%
Current value: $14.3
Potential payout: $97.62
Potential profit: $83.32
Multiplier: 6.83x
User PnL: $4.54

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $95.81
Potential profit: $95.81
User PnL: -$9.58

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $93.4
Potential profit: $93.4
User PnL: -$9.95

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.45
Potential profit: $90.45
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $14.9
Potential payout: $85.15
Potential profit: $70.25
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $4.68

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $10.42
Potential payout: $83.38
Potential profit: $72.96
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$4.59

No position

ECB rate hike in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $80
User PnL: -$9.6

No position

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

Ends Aug 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $77.89
Potential profit: $77.89
User PnL: -$9.96

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $4.11
Potential payout: $74.73
Potential profit: $70.62
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$6.11

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $4.48
Potential payout: $74.73
Potential profit: $70.25
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$5.73

Yes position

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $7.78
Potential payout: $74.08
Potential profit: $66.3
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$2.59

Yes position

Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $15.19
Potential payout: $74.08
Potential profit: $58.89
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $4.82

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $3.33
Potential payout: $74.03
Potential profit: $70.7
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$7.03

Yes position

Anduril IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 11%
Current value: $8.08
Potential payout: $73.48
Potential profit: $65.4
Multiplier: 9.09x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.2%
Current value: $3
Potential payout: $72.22
Potential profit: $69.23
Multiplier: 24.10x
User PnL: -$4.23

No position

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $10.05
Potential payout: $69.3
Potential profit: $59.25
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $9.01
Potential payout: $66.73
Potential profit: $57.72
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $6.5
Potential payout: $65
Potential profit: $58.5
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$3.3

Yes position

Mistral AI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.13
Potential payout: $64.52
Potential profit: $58.39
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$4.19

Yes position

Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $3.13
Potential payout: $62.56
Potential profit: $59.43
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$6.88

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.55
Potential profit: $61.55
User PnL: -$9.85

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.95
Potential payout: $60.83
Potential profit: $56.88
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$6.35

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.3%
Current value: $7.45
Potential payout: $60.79
Potential profit: $53.34
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: -$2.58

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.74

Yes position

Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.31

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.32

Yes position

Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.59

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.65

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.33

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $19.02

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.9

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.56

Yes position

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.57

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.2

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $7.18

Yes position

Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: $4.14

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $2.96

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $2.82

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 18%
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$4.57

Yes position

U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.78

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.09

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.14

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?