Polymarket Trader

lilgato

0xd2494ceb6dad8cf772e550b2bd327c4fbe3210da

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $6.39K
Realized PnL: $1.03K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 21
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $1.8K
Potential payout: $2.1K
Potential profit: $304.5
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: -$10.93

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $715.63
Potential payout: $827.32
Potential profit: $111.69
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $57.14

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $471.76
Potential payout: $564.98
Potential profit: $93.22
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $78.32

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $471.43
Potential payout: $483.51
Potential profit: $12.09
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.17

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $433.41
Potential payout: $436.03
Potential profit: $2.62
User PnL: $13.05

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $420.37
Potential payout: $420.58
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: $27.89

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 79.7%
Current value: $268.89
Potential payout: $337.59
Potential profit: $68.7
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: $59.27

No position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $290.02
Potential payout: $324.04
Potential profit: $34.02
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $8.1

No position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $299.55
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.45
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 82.1%
Current value: $238.09
Potential payout: $290
Potential profit: $51.91
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $43.4

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 96.1%
Current value: $240.13
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $9.88
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $217.67
Potential payout: $218
Potential profit: $0.33
User PnL: $0.98

No position

Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $149.78
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $0.22
User PnL: $0.97

Yes position

Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $45.5
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $53.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $46.5
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: $4.5

No position

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $79.43
Potential payout: $79.55
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $0.84

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $56.35
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $13.65
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $5.95

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $58.21
Potential payout: $59.98
Potential profit: $1.77
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $51.25
Potential payout: $51.38
Potential profit: $0.13
User PnL: $1.94

No position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 53.1%
Current value: $15.93
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $14.07
Multiplier: 1.88x
User PnL: -$9.18

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $10.77
Potential payout: $12.82
Potential profit: $2.05
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $1.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $217.83

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $198.09

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
User PnL: $110.15

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.89

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.69

No position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.8

Yes position

Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.28

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.57

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.63

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?

Ends May 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $26.62

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: $26.29

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.46

No position

Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.97

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.44

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.65

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

Ends May 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.88

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.6%
User PnL: $16.83

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.8

No position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.9%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $11.63

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.62

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $9.2

No position

Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: $7.05

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 87% 300 shares
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?

Yes 50% 100 shares
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?

No 49% 100 shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026?

No 99.7% 100 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 86% 600 shares
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 97.6% 160 shares
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?

Yes 97.5% 20 shares
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

No 87% 28 shares
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?

No 99.2% 51.38 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 87% 200 shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

No 89% 100 shares
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

No 99.4% 18 shares