0xd29D50D938E41D7542d91C94cd4334625c30765c-1782162286348

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $999.5
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $333.17
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $1.98
Potential payout: $208.27
Potential profit: $206.29
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.58
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.76
Potential payout: $153.41
Potential profit: $151.64
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $8.26
Potential payout: $151.63
Potential profit: $143.37
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: $5.26

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.86
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

No position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $84.83
Potential profit: $84.71
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.18
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.9%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $40.46
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: $0.21

No position

Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $24.39
Potential profit: $22.91
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $19.53
Multiplier: 23.31x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $19.93
Potential profit: $19.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.99

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $1.51
Potential payout: $17.8
Potential profit: $16.29
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $17.24
Potential profit: $16.27
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $16.04
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.66
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.99

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $14.29
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 47%
Current value: $5.88
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $6.63
Multiplier: 2.13x
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $11.49
Potential profit: $10.97
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: -$0.48

Yes position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $0.85
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.15
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $9.09
Potential profit: $8.36
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $6.81
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$0.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0.71

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0.64

No position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.3%
Multiplier: 19.05x
User PnL: $0.5

No position

MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 23-29?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.29

Yes position

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

Implied probability: 24.5%
Multiplier: 4.08x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

Implied probability: 42.7%
Multiplier: 2.34x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $0.16

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.4%
Multiplier: 11.98x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.35

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?