Polymarket Trader

Normaner

@JerryMcmenemy

0xd2e40b3c4cd54d52fe1b1959686e6c499e902d9b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $128.01
Realized PnL: $99.02
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 3
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $112.78
Potential payout: $126.72
Potential profit: $13.94
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.07

Yes position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.26
Potential profit: $28.26
User PnL: -$26

Yes position

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $15.23
Potential payout: $18.92
Potential profit: $3.69
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $1.23

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.82

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.61

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.02

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.93

No position

Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.93

Yes position

Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.45

No position

US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?

Ends Jan 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.04

Yes position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.86

Yes position

Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86

Yes position

Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.05

Yes position

Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.78

No position

Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Ends Feb 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.38

Yes position

Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.18

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will Akylas win Sing for Greece 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

No position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

No position

US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 85% 126.72 shares
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Yes 92% 28.26 shares
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Yes 74% 18.92 shares
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?

Yes 89% 25.96 shares
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Yes 26% 22.56 shares
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?

Yes 93% 86.02 shares
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Yes 70.9% 22.57 shares
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026?

Yes 98.4% 22.44 shares
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 22.34 shares
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?

No 99.4% 25.43 shares
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Yes 99.9% 25.92 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 43% 43.47 shares