Polymarket Trader

gap18

0xd35e67214123d36590137c1b5b59c17dfc2b30a3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $97.68
Realized PnL: $347.51
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $333
Potential profit: $331.67
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$8.66

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $2.66
Potential payout: $166
Potential profit: $163.34
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$7.3

Yes position

Ink FDV above $3B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $9.69
Potential payout: $149
Potential profit: $139.32
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

DAI depeg by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.15
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $36.86
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$2.53

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $9.41
Potential payout: $36.91
Potential profit: $27.5
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$2.77

Yes position

Will France be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $33
User PnL: -$7.92

Yes position

Will Switzerland be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 World Cup?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33
Potential profit: $33
User PnL: -$7.92

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $4.43
Potential payout: $26.83
Potential profit: $22.4
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$5.78

Yes position

Will Kobbie Mainoo be in England's Starting 11?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.92
Potential profit: $20.92
User PnL: -$7.32

Yes position

Will Adam Novotný be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$9

No position

Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 58%
Current value: $11.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $8.4
Multiplier: 1.72x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Hotstuff FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $8.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11.6
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $1.025B?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $3.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.7
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$6.1

No position

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.6%
Current value: $5.31
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.69
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$3.29

Yes position

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.1
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$3.9

Yes position

Noble FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.79
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$5.79

No position

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $12.3
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $7.7
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $0.9

Yes position

Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $4.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $15.3
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Q2 net interest income be above $1B?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.4
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$3.8

Yes position

Will Carson Carels be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$9.4

Yes position

Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?

Ends Mar 31, 2027

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $7.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.8
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$1.6

Yes position

Iran full airspace closure by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.2
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $20
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Patrick Vallance be in the Burnham cabinet?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $17.3
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$3.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.55

Yes position

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.32

Down position

Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.99

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.99

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.33

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.19

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.99

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.8

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.72

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.4

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.35

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.08

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.23

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

Down position

Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.2

Down position

BNB Up or Down - May 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.19

Down position

BNB Up or Down - May 2, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Ends May 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.39

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.2

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.19

Down position

Solana Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

No 49.3% 5 shares
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Yes 35% 5 shares
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month?

Up 34% 20 shares
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

No 52% 20 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?

No 16% 20 shares
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June?

No 43.4% 50 shares
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

Yes 29% 2.38 shares
Will Reya launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Yes 32% 20 shares
Greek snap election scheduled in 2026?

Yes 29% 5 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

No 32% 37.3 shares
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

Yes 52% 14.04 shares
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?

No 31% 13.33 shares