Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $198.5
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Polymarket Trader
Toiletman2
0xd372b093f979707e15bd7cf566d3add61153b106
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $11.12
- Realized PnL
- -$10.24
- Win rate
- 33.3%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 21
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $166.67
- Potential profit
- $165.92
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $1.23
- Potential payout
- $90.91
- Potential profit
- $89.68
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- $0.23
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $1.87
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $81.46
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $0.87
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.3
- Potential payout
- $67
- Potential profit
- $66.7
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Y
Yes position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.23
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.78
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.78
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $28.99
- Potential profit
- $28.92
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.03
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.21
- Potential payout
- $27.78
- Potential profit
- $27.57
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.79
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $0.68
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $24.33
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $24.86
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Yes position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.14
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $24.86
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.92
- Potential profit
- $22.92
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.01
- Potential profit
- $21.01
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.79
- Potential profit
- $16.79
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.9%
- Current value
- $1.09
- Potential payout
- $15.87
- Potential profit
- $14.79
- Multiplier
- 14.60x
- User PnL
- $0.09
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.46
- Potential profit
- $15.46
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.6%
- Current value
- $2.01
- Potential payout
- $11.43
- Potential profit
- $9.42
- Multiplier
- 5.70x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.52
- Potential profit
- $9.52
- User PnL
- -$2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.33
- Potential profit
- $8.33
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $0.92
- Potential payout
- $7.52
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.14
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.14
- Potential profit
- $7.14
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.09
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.95
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.85
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.44
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
Ends Jun 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Yes 19% 5.26 shares
- Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30?Yes 3.6% 27.78 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?No 4% 25 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?No 6.3% 15.87 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 13.3% 7.52 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?No 19% 5.26 shares
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?Yes 2% 50 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETUp 22% 4.55 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ETDown 17% 5.88 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ETUp 4% 25 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETUp 15% 6.67 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ETDown 7% 14.29 shares