No position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 59%
- Current value
- $983.55
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $683.48
- Multiplier
- 1.69x
- User PnL
- -$16.45
Polymarket Trader
0815g
0xd3b64f385cd5ca2dc498bd80114503ea409e14f4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.59K
- Realized PnL
- $1.58K
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Y
Yes position
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $904.13
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $191.79
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $54.13
No position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $702.36
- Potential payout
- $802.69
- Potential profit
- $100.34
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $25.86
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $676.7
- Potential profit
- $676.7
- User PnL
- -$500
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $765.25
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $443.46
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $233.81
Yes position
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $217.94
Yes position
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup?
Ends Jul 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $170.31
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120
Yes position
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72.41
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $42.17
No position
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.96
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- $30.46
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.16
No position
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $16.6
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.21
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.11
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $9.66
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.3
No position
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.35
Yes position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$12.05
No position
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$60
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$129.52
Yes position
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$195.71
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$220
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?Yes 77.6% 1,095.92 shares
- Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No 60% 1,667.03 shares
- Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027?No 91.4% 109.89 shares
- Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionYes 83% 200 shares
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes 90% 224.71 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 81% 602.4 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 93.3% 224.71 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No 90% 602.4 shares
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No 92% 283.26 shares
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Yes 89% 224.72 shares
- Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes 58% 172.41 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?No 32% 220.25 shares