Polymarket Trader

881112

0xd426adbc3c4461c86099c26221c877f20e42334a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $91.31K
Realized PnL: $448.47K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $18.96K
Potential payout: $152.25K
Potential profit: $133.3K
Multiplier: 8.03x
User PnL: $9.94K

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $149.98K
Potential profit: $149.98K
User PnL: -$3.76K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.53K
Potential profit: $115.53K
User PnL: -$11.79K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.78K
Potential profit: $68.78K
User PnL: -$4.02K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $61.08K
Potential payout: $61.17K
Potential profit: $91.76
User PnL: $53.68K

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17%
Current value: $10.14K
Potential payout: $59.62K
Potential profit: $49.49K
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: -$1.2K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.46K
Potential profit: $54.46K
User PnL: -$484.3

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.12K
Potential profit: $52.12K
User PnL: -$6.86K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.12K
Potential payout: $49.89K
Potential profit: $48.76K
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$1.17K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.89K
Potential profit: $48.89K
User PnL: -$836.05

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.11K
Potential profit: $48.11K
User PnL: -$807.76

Yes position

Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $46.36K
Potential profit: $46.36K
User PnL: -$282.12

Yes position

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $45.17K
Potential profit: $45.17K
User PnL: -$2.33K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 14, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.06K
Potential profit: $42.06K
User PnL: -$677.66

No position

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.72K
Potential profit: $38.72K
User PnL: -$1.22K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 13, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.37K
Potential profit: $38.37K
User PnL: -$577.04

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.27K
Potential profit: $38.27K
User PnL: -$360.63

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 8, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $37.4K
Potential profit: $37.4K
User PnL: -$553.87

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.79K
Potential profit: $36.79K
User PnL: -$1.88K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 27, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.22K
Potential profit: $34.22K
User PnL: -$372.28

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 21, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.54K
Potential profit: $33.54K
User PnL: -$488.7

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $31.1K
Potential profit: $31.1K
User PnL: -$470.33

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30.62K
Potential profit: $30.62K
User PnL: -$3.08K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $13.6
Potential payout: $27.2K
Potential profit: $27.19K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.82K

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Government shutdown on Saturday?

Ends Feb 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.19K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.87K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?

Ends Oct 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.14K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.07K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.89K

Yes position

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41K

No position

Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.13K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.02K

No position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.89K

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.31K

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.53K

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.4K

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 12?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.98K

Yes position

GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.94K

No position

Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.25K

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.13K

No position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.06K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.98K

Yes position

Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.51K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.12K

Bears position

Bears vs. Commanders

Ends Oct 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8K

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.82K

Yes position

US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.03K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.81K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 8% 840.68 shares
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Yes 39.8% 12.67 shares
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?

No 16% 3,729.2 shares
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

No 28% 49.57 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 63% 6,050.69 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 62% 2,167.79 shares
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

No 76.6% 871.81 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 75.1% 928.4 shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?

No 95.3% 938.11 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 18% 7,558.14 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 61% 2,655.89 shares
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 72.4% 9,553.64 shares