0xd43f47D08C7e23E86B56CB8984241E49DB7bC66b-1782112487159

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $98.8
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.62
Potential payout: $77
Potential profit: $75.38
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $46.85
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.03
Potential payout: $48
Potential profit: $46.97
Multiplier: 46.73x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Ends Dec 19, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $37.91
Potential profit: $37.13
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $29.88
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $31
Potential profit: $30.26
Multiplier: 41.67x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $29
Potential profit: $28
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $27.09
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 3.2%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $28
Potential profit: $27.12
Multiplier: 31.75x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MA-07 House seat?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $27
Potential profit: $26.54
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the MA-08 House seat?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.44
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $25.56
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.57

Yes position

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $25.01
Multiplier: 26.32x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-32 House seat?

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $23.86
Multiplier: 21.98x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the NY-13 House seat?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $24.13
Multiplier: 28.57x
User PnL: -$0.13

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $23.92
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.66
Potential payout: $24
Potential profit: $23.34
Multiplier: 36.36x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $23.83
Potential profit: $22.97
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the WY-AL House seat?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $21.59
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-03 House seat?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $21.59
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the MS-03 House seat?

Implied probability: 5.1%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $20.88
Multiplier: 19.65x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the OK-02 House seat?

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $0.48
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $21.52
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$0.53

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the CA-03 House seat?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.68
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $21.32
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will the Republican Party win the VA-11 House seat?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $21.62
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$0.65

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.4%
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: $1.06

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.8%
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: $0.72

Yes position

Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.55

Yes position

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Will Venezuela become 51st state?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Implied probability: 13.3%
Multiplier: 7.55x
User PnL: $0.24

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-12 House seat?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.18

Yes position

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.17

Yes position

Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Ends Sep 20, 2026

Implied probability: 8.2%
Multiplier: 12.20x
User PnL: $0.16

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 10%
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: $0.14

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0.13

Yes position

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: $0.13

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 11.5%
Multiplier: 8.73x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

OKX IPO in 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.1

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?