No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $21.65K
- Potential payout
- $39.72K
- Potential profit
- $18.07K
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$1.08K
Polymarket Trader
KrackenSruster
0xd44e974a3edb232aa4aedbdcc59792b76a5f67e2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $245.15K
- Realized PnL
- $199.18K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $26.69K
- Potential payout
- $30.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.81K
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $8.39K
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $23.67K
- Potential payout
- $28.01K
- Potential profit
- $4.34K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $3.51K
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $22.38K
- Potential payout
- $26.97K
- Potential profit
- $4.58K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $3.9K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $22.98K
- Potential payout
- $23.43K
- Potential profit
- $445.15
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $16.68K
- Potential payout
- $23.01K
- Potential profit
- $6.33K
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $2.07K
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $16.45K
- Potential payout
- $16.84K
- Potential profit
- $387.31
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $594.7
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $11.39K
- Potential payout
- $14.51K
- Potential profit
- $3.12K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$116.96
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 44.5%
- Current value
- $5.79K
- Potential payout
- $13.01K
- Potential profit
- $7.22K
- Multiplier
- 2.25x
- User PnL
- -$2.23K
No position
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $12.49K
- Potential payout
- $12.76K
- Potential profit
- $261.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $5.62K
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90%
- Current value
- $8.44K
- Potential payout
- $9.38K
- Potential profit
- $937.78
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $140.76
No position
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $7.67K
- Potential payout
- $9.18K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.64K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $7.96K
- Potential payout
- $9.15K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62%
- Current value
- $5.59K
- Potential payout
- $9.02K
- Potential profit
- $3.43K
- Multiplier
- 1.61x
- User PnL
- -$491.35
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $4.12K
- Potential payout
- $8K
- Potential profit
- $3.88K
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $291.27
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $6.61K
- Potential payout
- $6.89K
- Potential profit
- $282.65
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.28K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Current value
- $5.9K
- Potential payout
- $6.11K
- Potential profit
- $210.65
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $156.65
No position
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $5.9K
- Potential payout
- $6.01K
- Potential profit
- $114.25
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.45K
- Potential payout
- $4.56K
- Potential profit
- $114.01
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $605.12
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $2.16K
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $1.04K
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$13.9
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $2.49K
- Potential payout
- $3.09K
- Potential profit
- $602.32
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $82.22
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $1.3K
- Potential payout
- $2.07K
- Potential profit
- $777.06
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $51.69
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.76K
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $2.65
- User PnL
- $881.35
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $625.72
- Potential payout
- $1.63K
- Potential profit
- $999.53
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$154.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.12K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.01K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.18K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.56K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.28K
No position
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.07K
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.76K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.65K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.97K
No position
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.42K
No position
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by August 31?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.28K
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.66K
No position
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.63K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.39K
No position
Will Russia recapture territory in Kucheriv Yar by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.84K
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76K
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.76K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.66K
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.08K
No position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.11K
No position
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.23K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $4.17K
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 53% 1,773.58 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 90% 63 shares
- UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)Justin Gaethje 27% 999.99 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23.7% 9,902.32 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 23% 2,000 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 75% 1,866.67 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?No 97.7% 3,500 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 72% 804.17 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 71% 985.92 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 69% 10,443.48 shares
- Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?No 68% 2,705.15 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No 81% 63 shares