Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $12.92K
- Potential payout
- $22.47K
- Potential profit
- $9.55K
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $1.16K
Polymarket Trader
0xb55c6dc1dafc7c30f48d617252ee75bcc5c540a3
0xd45958e02d9cb1019fc96fc9e86ba27920b613f9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $15.88K
- Realized PnL
- $28.23K
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.73K
- Potential profit
- $20.73K
- User PnL
- -$15K
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $2.5K
- Potential payout
- $6.5K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- $162.5
Yes position
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $267.16
- Potential payout
- $508.88
- Potential profit
- $241.72
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- -$67.61
Yes position
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $99
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $201
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$99
Yes position
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 31%
- Current value
- $93
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $207
- Multiplier
- 3.23x
- User PnL
- -$45
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.19K
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.53K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Ends Sep 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?
Ends Oct 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.53K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $853.55
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $597.41
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $514.36
No position
Will Carney government pass a confidence vote before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $400
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $398.8
No position
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.88
Yes position
Will Tisza win at least 90 seats?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $202.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $189.29
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176.39
Yes position
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.1
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $84
Yes position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.47
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $61.41
Yes position
Will Poilievre regain a seat in Canadian Parliament in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.36
No position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.17
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 5PM ET
Ends Jan 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.8
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.87
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ETUp 53.3% 9.39 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 70.1% 7,136.58 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 73.6% 13,589.8 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?No 21.8% 10,403 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 53% 14,849.06 shares
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 52% 5,000 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96.6% 872.14 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96.8% 5,166.21 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96.8% 10,326.23 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96% 10 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 96% 16.67 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 95.6% 167.1 shares