No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $199.5
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.5
- User PnL
- $52.7
Polymarket Trader
TheBud
0xd4c7a880a646a24080256d0e8f984ee4a6289f6a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.58K
- Realized PnL
- $719.89
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Costco increases hotdog price before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $9
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $141
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $119.91
- Potential payout
- $145.35
- Potential profit
- $25.44
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $6.28
Yes position
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$52.5
No position
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $111.94
- Potential payout
- $123.69
- Potential profit
- $11.75
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $20.05
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $118.98
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $1.02
- User PnL
- $17.38
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $108.6
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $113.22
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $6.78
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $13.62
No position
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99%
- Current value
- $98.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $1.05
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $18.55
Yes position
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $47.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- $8.5
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $64.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $35.5
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $8.2
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$5.2
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $95.49
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $22.4
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $89.64
- Potential payout
- $90
- Potential profit
- $0.36
- User PnL
- $11.44
No position
Will Israel annex any territory by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $89.72
- Potential payout
- $89.99
- Potential profit
- $0.27
- User PnL
- $15.89
Yes position
Israel election: will Likud lose seats?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $73.53
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $11.47
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $2.78
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $79.44
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $0.56
- User PnL
- $15.44
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $42.9
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $17.1
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- -$1.87
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.7
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.03
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $59.97
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$8.97
No position
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $48.13
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $9.13
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $49.98
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $0.02
- User PnL
- $3.48
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $7.88
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $42.13
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$19.63
Yes position
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$40.25
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.11
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.24
Yes position
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.4
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 41.1%
- Multiplier
- 2.44x
- User PnL
- $42.12
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.35
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.5
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.9
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.34
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.31
No position
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
No position
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.4
No position
Will Israel strike 1 country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.52
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.4
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.42
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.2
Yes position
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17?
Ends Oct 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.4
No position
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.61
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.52
Yes position
Will Israel not raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30 ET?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.45
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes 83% 10 shares
- Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes 86% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 75% 37 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?No 74% 23 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 31% 60 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 65% 60 shares
- Israel election: will Likud lose seats?Yes 85% 25 shares
- Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes 78.1% 99.99 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?No 73% 50 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 90.5% 30 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 88.9% 20 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 77% 40 shares