Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$70
Polymarket Trader
CryptoPlaybook
@TimStone84
0xd4f71021a1027b603105b56ed005cbd3556373bb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.04K
- Realized PnL
- $9.77K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $27.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.97K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$312.44
No position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.5%
- Current value
- $830
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- Multiplier
- 2.41x
- User PnL
- -$170
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $830
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- $170
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $113
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- -$107.99
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.9%
- Current value
- $57
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.94K
- Multiplier
- 35.09x
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 34.5%
- Current value
- $603.57
- Potential payout
- $1.75K
- Potential profit
- $1.15K
- Multiplier
- 2.90x
- User PnL
- $178.91
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.8%
- Current value
- $59.8
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $980.2
- Multiplier
- 17.39x
- User PnL
- -$28.6
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $119.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $880.5
- Multiplier
- 8.37x
- User PnL
- $31.5
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.6%
- Current value
- $106.68
- Potential payout
- $850
- Potential profit
- $743.33
- Multiplier
- 7.97x
- User PnL
- $18.28
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $76
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $724
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $53.2
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $746.8
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$34
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.8%
- Current value
- $98.75
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $401.25
- Multiplier
- 5.06x
- User PnL
- $18.75
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $69.25
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $430.74
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$15.25
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $249.21
- Potential payout
- $437.29
- Potential profit
- $188.08
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$64.12
Yes position
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $23.8
- Potential payout
- $349.99
- Potential profit
- $326.19
- Multiplier
- 14.71x
- User PnL
- -$5.95
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $250.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $49.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $21.5
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.7%
- Current value
- $249.13
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $0.88
- User PnL
- $6.63
No position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $198.4
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $1.6
- User PnL
- $15.4
No position
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $189.3
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $10.7
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $181
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $19
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $13
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $199.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- User PnL
- $13.1
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $78.76
- Potential payout
- $150.01
- Potential profit
- $71.26
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $17.25
Yes position
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 23%
- Current value
- $34.5
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $115.5
- Multiplier
- 4.35x
- User PnL
- -$24
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.25K
No position
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $802.5
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 42%
- Multiplier
- 2.38x
- User PnL
- $751.23
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $277.6
Yes position
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.99
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $198.07
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.62
No position
Over $3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $89.4
No position
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $88.72
No position
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Ends Oct 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $85
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $84
No position
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $83.31
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $72
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $57.7
No position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.6%
- Multiplier
- 6.02x
- User PnL
- $45.68
No position
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.62
Yes position
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.61
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.22
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $36.15
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.13
No position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 84.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $33
No position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $30
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 25% 400 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes 25% 2,000 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 0.8% 31,250 shares
- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Yes 71.5% 350 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 75% 1.53 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Yes 65% 1.54 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor SecretaryYes 57% 166.35 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 92% 3.26 shares
- Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 15 be between 80 and 85?Yes 68% 16.78 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No 70% 7.14 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?No 96.1% 500 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No 72% 1.39 shares