Polymarket Trader

0xd4f9...543a

0xd4f93f8490ad599d48b433a9adb5ad094eda543a

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $310.48
Realized PnL: $363.24
Win rate: 95.8%
Open positions: 15
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Starmer out by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $350
Potential profit: $350
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125.26
Potential profit: $125.26
User PnL: -$11.26

Yes position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $107.8
Potential profit: $107.8
User PnL: -$37.73

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $103.85
Potential profit: $103.85
User PnL: -$34.27

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $9.42
Potential payout: $99.17
Potential profit: $89.75
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$43.14

Yes position

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.35
Potential payout: $99.16
Potential profit: $81.8
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $98.59
Potential profit: $98.59
User PnL: -$3.15

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $8.28
Potential payout: $97.43
Potential profit: $89.15
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$12.18

Yes position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.3%
Current value: $10.75
Potential payout: $95.09
Potential profit: $84.34
Multiplier: 8.85x
User PnL: -$6.37

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $90.41
Potential payout: $91.6
Potential profit: $1.19
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $6.14

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $84.41
Potential payout: $88.71
Potential profit: $4.3
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $9

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $85.87
Potential payout: $87.94
Potential profit: $2.07
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $39.27

No position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.82
Potential profit: $69.82
User PnL: -$23.63

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $3.99
Potential payout: $66.57
Potential profit: $62.57
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$2.66

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57.15
Potential profit: $57.15
User PnL: -$41.72

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.95

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $42.97

Yes position

Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.28

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.54

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.52

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.9

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.69

No position

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.12

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.45

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.7%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $11.95

No position

Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.32

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.24

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.93

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.8

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.36

No position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.22

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.88

No position

Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.12

No position

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Netanyahu out by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 92% 91.6 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 3.9% 70.09 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 86.7% 38.78 shares
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?

Yes 4.1% 35.05 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Yes 25% 103.3 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

No 66% 73.59 shares
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes 5.1% 84.64 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Yes 5% 105.7 shares
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?

No 71% 218.1 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Yes 19% 28.18 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?

No 93.7% 37.8 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

No 81% 96.6 shares