Polymarket Trader

UpDownUpDown

0xd5196bdf50199e195c58a6aff2114cc0e455932c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $8.28K
Realized PnL: $584.62K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $555.56K
Potential profit: $555.56K
User PnL: -$4.5K

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $277.78
Potential payout: $555.55K
Potential profit: $555.28K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$478.89

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $981.99
Potential payout: $392.8K
Potential profit: $391.81K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$196.4

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $233.84K
Potential profit: $233.84K
User PnL: -$1.4K

Yes position

Epstein suicide note released by May 8?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $155.56K
Potential profit: $155.56K
User PnL: -$406.78

Yes position

Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $855.55
Potential payout: $155.56K
Potential profit: $154.7K
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $75.91

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150K
Potential profit: $150K
User PnL: -$252.15

No position

Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $105.56K
Potential profit: $105.56K
User PnL: -$761.9

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Starmer out by May 19, 2026?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$2.68K

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$1.44K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100K
Potential profit: $100K
User PnL: -$1.02K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.77K
Potential profit: $99.77K
User PnL: -$199.73

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4?

Ends May 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.89K
Potential profit: $88.89K
User PnL: -$820.89

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70K
Potential profit: $70K
User PnL: -$2.86K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $69.11K
Potential profit: $69.11K
User PnL: -$1.41K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.83K
Potential profit: $66.83K
User PnL: -$1.27K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2?

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $66.66K
Potential profit: $66.66K
User PnL: -$592.3

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $61.11K
Potential profit: $61.11K
User PnL: -$1.15K

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $58.11K
Potential profit: $58.11K
User PnL: -$2.35K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56K
Potential profit: $55.56K
User PnL: -$639.84

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56K
Potential profit: $55.56K
User PnL: -$500

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $6.17K
Potential payout: $55.56K
Potential profit: $49.39K
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56K
Potential profit: $55.56K
User PnL: -$202.17

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.3K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.62K

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.74K

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.09K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.56K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.69K

No position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on October 16?

Ends Oct 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.35K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.42K

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Ends Oct 14, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.65K

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.96K

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.83K

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.55K

No position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.55K

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.55K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.44K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7?

Ends May 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.38K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.07K

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.71K

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.44K

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - October 6, 3PM ET

Ends Oct 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.26K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.9K

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.82K

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.72K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

No 0.1% 1,096 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.1% 53,741 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Yes 1.3% 209.95 shares
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5

Over 6% 2,225.91 shares
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5

Over 6% 1,864.53 shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?

Yes 99% 4,999.99 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.1% 300,378.34 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

No 6.9% 1,765.73 shares
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Yes 0.6% 100 shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?

Yes 2.2% 150 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.3% 4,406.58 shares
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Yes 0.2% 34,608.08 shares