No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.51K
- Potential profit
- $35.51K
- User PnL
- -$38.95
Polymarket Trader
US-Securities-and-Exchange-Commission
0xd583e8366094d9e862643d8c9d4a13df8b1a6874
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $120.87
- Realized PnL
- $921.36
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.52K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- User PnL
- -$5.06
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will NVIDIA dip to $116 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500.49
- Potential profit
- $500.49
- User PnL
- -$17.07
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.4%
- Current value
- $43.87
- Potential payout
- $466.66
- Potential profit
- $422.79
- Multiplier
- 10.64x
- User PnL
- $1.87
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $301.32
- Potential profit
- $301.32
- User PnL
- -$59.38
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $46.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $253.5
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $7.5
Yes position
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $132.16
- Potential profit
- $132.16
- User PnL
- -$5.7
Yes position
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$23
Yes position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$43
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$56
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$23.92
Yes position
Will NVIDIA dip to $136 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$4.89
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Current value
- $30.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $69.5
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- -$22.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $85.82
- Potential profit
- $85.82
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78.56
- Potential profit
- $78.56
- User PnL
- -$1.53
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $78
- Potential profit
- $78
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $60
- Potential profit
- $60
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59
- Potential profit
- $59
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $53
- Potential profit
- $53
- User PnL
- -$1.98
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41
- Potential profit
- $41
- User PnL
- -$1.03
Yes position
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $38
- Potential profit
- $38
- User PnL
- -$1.02
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.1
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $181.6
Yes position
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.15
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.05
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
Y
Yes position
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?
Ends Jul 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.62
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.43
Silver position
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.44
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2?
Ends Mar 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.87
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.6
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.43
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.74
Israel position
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $7.46
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.02
Yes position
Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.64
Yes position
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $1.72
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,725-$4,850 in January?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13
Yes position
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.68
No position
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?Yes 36.5% 64 shares
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?Yes 13% 300 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?Yes 9% 466.66 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 53% 100 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?No 32% 100 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 0.1% 30,000 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 0.1% 3,900 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 0.3% 340 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?No 0.3% 340 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?No 0.3% 340 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 0.3% 340 shares
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No 0.3% 340 shares