No position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.6%
- Current value
- $6.17
- Potential payout
- $72.16
- Potential profit
- $65.99
- Multiplier
- 11.70x
- User PnL
- $1.17
Polymarket Trader
0xd594...8153
0xd594abd97f1b5e7680378f84cafd320875928153
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $39.55
- Realized PnL
- $21.56
- Win rate
- 12.5%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $4.32
- Potential payout
- $45.45
- Potential profit
- $41.14
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
Yes position
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $13.96
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $27.71
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $3.96
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.18
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $39.82
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.82
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $2.06
- Potential payout
- $37.5
- Potential profit
- $35.44
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $33.84
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
Yes position
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $0.38
- Potential payout
- $30.3
- Potential profit
- $29.92
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.62
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $2.7
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $18.14
- Multiplier
- 7.72x
- User PnL
- $1.7
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $5.94
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $14.9
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$4.06
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $2.3
- Potential payout
- $15.88
- Potential profit
- $13.58
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
Yes position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $0.91
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $8.18
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.09
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.32
No position
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.81
No position
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 16, 2025)
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
90k position
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 22?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?
Ends Dec 16, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?
Ends Dec 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.28
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.6
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 5?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 17% 15.88 shares
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026?Yes 24% 41.67 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 48% 20.83 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 11% 45.45 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 8% 37.5 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 50% 68.62 shares
- Trump out as President before 2027?Yes 11% 9.09 shares
- Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?No 51% 68.63 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026?No 6.9% 72.16 shares
- Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.9% 142.03 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?No 13% 20 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Yes 2.5% 40 shares