No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $394.74
- Potential profit
- $394.74
- User PnL
- -$300
Polymarket Trader
0xd5AAD78225F1851F63b971e11FaFfBb18f9f7472-1759872585822
0xd5aad78225f1851f63b971e11faffbb18f9f7472
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.31K
- Realized PnL
- $1.27K
- Win rate
- 79.2%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.5%
- Current value
- $266.36
- Potential payout
- $388.85
- Potential profit
- $122.49
- Multiplier
- 1.46x
- User PnL
- $66.36
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.9%
- Current value
- $319.5
- Potential payout
- $333.33
- Potential profit
- $13.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $119.5
No position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80%
- Current value
- $188.13
- Potential payout
- $235.17
- Potential profit
- $47.03
- Multiplier
- 1.25x
- User PnL
- -$11.87
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.7%
- Current value
- $221.69
- Potential payout
- $234.22
- Potential profit
- $12.53
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $21.69
No position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $198.92
- Potential payout
- $218.6
- Potential profit
- $19.67
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Y
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $131.6
- Potential profit
- $131.6
- User PnL
- -$26
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97%
- Current value
- $114.06
- Potential payout
- $117.65
- Potential profit
- $3.59
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $14.06
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.29
- Potential profit
- $1.29
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $466.67
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.66
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $157.05
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.12
No position
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.04
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $97.77
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.62
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.97
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $37.5
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $31.03
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $28.33
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.21
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $26.67
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.84
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $17.5
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.64
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.29
No position
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.36
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.8
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$60.54
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$107.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 51.4% 388.85 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 66.7% 285.71 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 65% 351.28 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Yes 5.7% 880.72 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Yes 19.8% 1,012.32 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?No 56.9% 351.28 shares
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes 35% 571.43 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 99.9% 457.5 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 29% 20 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 65.6% 457.51 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes 25% 20 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 76% 394.74 shares