Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.9%
- Current value
- $29.7
- Potential payout
- $300.01
- Potential profit
- $270.31
- Multiplier
- 10.10x
- User PnL
- -$78.3
Polymarket Trader
0xba079Fada019696C747a32816aE18C7b630dd5E9-1765005135350
@lucasshoul35811
0xd5d07832c41e509bc5645ec64bd82cf725396730
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $29.7
- Realized PnL
- $24.5
- Win rate
- 41.7%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-05-23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $17.54
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.95
- Potential profit
- $16.95
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- $19.2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.44
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.58
Yes position
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.29
Yes position
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.8%
- Multiplier
- 4.40x
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.7%
- Multiplier
- 6.01x
- User PnL
- $0.12
Yes position
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 30%
- Multiplier
- 3.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.48
Yes position
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.8
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$1.18
No position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11%
- Multiplier
- 9.09x
- User PnL
- -$1.48
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.54
Yes position
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.58
Yes position
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
Yes position
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$1.99
Yes position
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5.76
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.67
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 36% 300 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 34% 320 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Yes 28% 320 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes 0.5% 64.93 shares
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes 14% 26.58 shares
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes 27% 29.64 shares
- Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?Yes 32% 26.31 shares
- Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election?Yes 28% 15.15 shares
- Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?No 11% 74 shares
- US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 14% 58.82 shares
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Yes 11% 76.92 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 15% 58.82 shares