Yes position
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25K
- Potential profit
- $25K
- User PnL
- -$50
Polymarket Trader
ArthurGreen
0xd5db05423b6718497684ae1bbe1557746d2c3c45
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $254.4
- Realized PnL
- $10.76K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 4, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.05K
- Potential profit
- $12.05K
- User PnL
- -$4.78K
No position
Trump renames Department of Defense by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.75K
- Potential profit
- $11.75K
- User PnL
- -$109.99
Yes position
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.51K
- Potential profit
- $11.51K
- User PnL
- -$103.59
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.03K
- Potential profit
- $11.03K
- User PnL
- -$34.14
No position
Jimmy Kimmel hosts an episode of "Jimmy Kimmel Live!" by September 30?
Ends Oct 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $254.4
- Potential payout
- $9.6K
- Potential profit
- $9.35K
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- $110.4
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.92K
- Potential profit
- $8.92K
- User PnL
- -$172.95
Yes position
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.48K
- Potential profit
- $7.48K
- User PnL
- -$306.3
Yes position
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $7K
- User PnL
- -$70
No position
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.02K
- Potential profit
- $6.02K
- User PnL
- -$12.04
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5.84K
- Potential profit
- $5.84K
- User PnL
- -$154.61
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.73K
- Potential profit
- $4.73K
- User PnL
- -$56.87
No position
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.65K
- Potential profit
- $4.65K
- User PnL
- -$12.7
Yes position
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.46K
- Potential profit
- $4.46K
- User PnL
- -$32.43
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.4K
- Potential profit
- $4.4K
- User PnL
- -$6.1
No position
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.39K
- Potential profit
- $4.39K
- User PnL
- -$2.65K
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.36K
- Potential profit
- $4.36K
- User PnL
- -$4.36
Yes position
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.25K
- Potential profit
- $4.25K
- User PnL
- -$42.49
Democratic position
Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 8, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.23K
- Potential profit
- $4.23K
- User PnL
- -$1.51K
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.17K
- Potential profit
- $4.17K
- User PnL
- -$8.34
No position
Will a Republican win Michigan Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.1K
- Potential profit
- $4.1K
- User PnL
- -$2.04K
No position
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $4K
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.79K
- Potential profit
- $3.79K
- User PnL
- -$3.79
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.79K
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $969.91
Yes position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $643.4
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $625.22
Yes position
US strike on Syria by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $600.16
No position
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $552.95
Yes position
James Comey indicted before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $510.79
No position
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $429.27
Yes position
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $422.88
Yes position
Will courts block Trump's National Guard deployment by Friday?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $396.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $344.85
Yes position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $333.21
No position
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316.82
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Italian Grand Prix?
Ends Sep 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.6
Yes position
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $279.59
Yes position
US out of WHO by Trump's first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $276.71
No position
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.8
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $258.62
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $252.88
Yes position
John Bolton federally charged by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $245.62
Yes position
Lily Phillips sex event cancelled?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.06
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $239.24
Yes position
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $238.07
No position
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
Ends Dec 31, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $208.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 18.9% 20 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 4.6% 548.34 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 4.2% 480.81 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 4.2% 601.26 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 20% 500.05 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 21.6% 150 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 27.6% 250 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 50.4% 198.38 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 64.1% 156.01 shares
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 48% 100 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 10.2% 50 shares
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Yes 10.3% 250 shares