Polymarket Trader

MartinStraub

0xd621a40217b0a3ca51c28860044e858a7297db65

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.05K
Realized PnL: $202.27
Win rate: 75%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.1%
Current value: $114.2
Potential payout: $568.18
Potential profit: $453.98
Multiplier: 4.98x
User PnL: $14.21

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 40.7%
Current value: $103.16
Potential payout: $253.52
Potential profit: $150.36
Multiplier: 2.46x
User PnL: $3.16

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.26
Potential profit: $208.26
User PnL: -$97.88

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $169.04
Potential payout: $180.8
Potential profit: $11.75
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $19.04

Yes position

Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $153.85
Potential payout: $153.85
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $53.85

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $117.65
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $17.65

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $106.04
Potential payout: $106.04
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $6.04

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $48.11
Potential payout: $75.76
Potential profit: $27.65
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$1.89

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.9%
Current value: $12.39
Potential payout: $73.31
Potential profit: $60.92
Multiplier: 5.92x
User PnL: -$37.61

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $58.37
Potential payout: $60.9
Potential profit: $2.53
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $8.37

Yes position

SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $57.47
Potential payout: $57.47
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $7.47

Yes position

Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $53.25
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $2.31
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $3.25

No position

Jimmy Lai released by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $54.11
Potential payout: $54.11
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $4.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.44

Yes position

Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50.13

Yes position

Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.45

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.57

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.32

Yes position

Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.38

Yes position

Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

Ends Mar 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.25

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.89

No position

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.52

Yes position

Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?

Ends Mar 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.38

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.03

No position

Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.47

Yes position

New Pope in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.38

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.32

No position

Elon no longer world's richest before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.18

Yes position

Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.62

Yes position

Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.39

Yes position

RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.33

Yes position

Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June?

Ends Jul 3, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will there be a US Government shutdown?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$14.77

Yes position

Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Trump positive favorability on April 1?

Ends Apr 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Trump end USAID in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$20

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 85% 117.65 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 83% 120.48 shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?

Yes 91% 109.89 shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 17.6% 568.18 shares
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Yes 65% 153.85 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?

Yes 57% 175.44 shares
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Yes 47% 203.74 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Yes 39.4% 253.52 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 66% 75.76 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 82.9% 60.31 shares
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?

Yes 90% 55.56 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

No 68.2% 73.31 shares