No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $326.99
- Potential payout
- $373.7
- Potential profit
- $46.71
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $121.76
Polymarket Trader
0xd6d0...d7a1
0xd6d0bb4cd386cb5e244620aecd0ce707791ed7a1
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $604.31
- Realized PnL
- $1.52K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $10.04
- Potential payout
- $171.7
- Potential profit
- $161.66
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- -$0.26
Yes position
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $7.64
- Potential payout
- $141.4
- Potential profit
- $133.76
- Multiplier
- 18.52x
- User PnL
- $2.55
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $16.36
- Potential payout
- $121.2
- Potential profit
- $104.84
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$35.83
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $80.8
- Potential profit
- $80.76
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$2.79
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $49.74
- Potential payout
- $58.86
- Potential profit
- $9.12
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $9.88
No position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $21.97
- Potential payout
- $50.5
- Potential profit
- $28.53
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $1.77
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.08
- Potential payout
- $50.5
- Potential profit
- $50.42
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$9.52
Yes position
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.1%
- Current value
- $35.85
- Potential payout
- $44.2
- Potential profit
- $8.35
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $34.34
Yes position
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
Ends Sep 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $20.93
- Potential payout
- $40.25
- Potential profit
- $19.32
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $5.62
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $19.48
- Potential payout
- $35.75
- Potential profit
- $16.27
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- $3.04
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.9%
- Current value
- $31.43
- Potential payout
- $35.35
- Potential profit
- $3.92
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $8.34
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $23.94
- Potential payout
- $30.3
- Potential profit
- $6.36
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $12.73
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $23.6
- Potential payout
- $25.24
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $11.73
No position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 47%
- Current value
- $9.97
- Potential payout
- $21.21
- Potential profit
- $11.24
- Multiplier
- 2.13x
- User PnL
- -$0.64
Yes position
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $16.5
- Potential profit
- $10.23
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$3.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.5
Yes position
Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $165.63
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.4
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.73
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $79.67
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.7
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.17
No position
Will "MLB Opening Night: Yankees vs. Giants" be the top US Netflix show this week?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.84
No position
Iran strike on US military by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.2
No position
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $54.76
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.83
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.49
Yes position
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.68
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $47.26
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.86
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.82
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.67
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.71
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.51
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.94
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.89
Yes position
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
Ends Dec 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.28
No position
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.98
Yes position
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.34
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 16.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 99.1% 28.41 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 18% 40.4 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 30% 50.5 shares
- Will United States win on 2026-06-12?Yes 46% 12.12 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No 60% 3.33 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?No 34% 16.16 shares
- SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?No 15% 16.16 shares
- Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No 98.6% 50.5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Yes 2.2% 90 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No 40% 50.5 shares
- Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No 71% 50.5 shares