No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $4.64K
- Potential payout
- $5.13K
- Potential profit
- $487.57
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Polymarket Trader
weirdmoon3
0xd6f8b9c68945016935db9e59818ecf6d92cb2d1d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.34K
- Realized PnL
- $956.22
- Win rate
- 65%
- Open positions
- 20
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $216.45
- Potential payout
- $3.7K
- Potential profit
- $3.48K
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- -$523.55
Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 6.6%
- Current value
- $155.53
- Potential payout
- $2.37K
- Potential profit
- $2.22K
- Multiplier
- 15.27x
- User PnL
- -$4.46
Yes position
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.24K
- Potential profit
- $2.24K
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $175.93
- Potential payout
- $1.85K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$324.07
Yes position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $705.35
- Potential profit
- $705.35
- User PnL
- -$550
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Current value
- $47.87
- Potential payout
- $529
- Potential profit
- $481.13
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $2.88
Yes position
Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $525.49
- Potential profit
- $525.49
- User PnL
- -$400
No position
Will the Labour Party win at least 300 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $378.68
- Potential profit
- $378.68
- User PnL
- -$60
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.4%
- Current value
- $84.91
- Potential payout
- $363.64
- Potential profit
- $278.73
- Multiplier
- 4.28x
- User PnL
- -$15.09
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $4.11
- Potential payout
- $357.14
- Potential profit
- $353.04
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
Will the Green Party win control of the most London borough councils?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $349.32
- Potential profit
- $349.32
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $4.56
- Potential payout
- $294.12
- Potential profit
- $289.56
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.44
No position
Will the Labour Party win at least 400 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $274
- Potential profit
- $274
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will the Labour Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $226.79
- Potential profit
- $226.79
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $125
- Potential profit
- $125
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 7.1%
- Current value
- $5.76
- Potential payout
- $80.65
- Potential profit
- $74.89
- Multiplier
- 14.01x
- User PnL
- $0.76
No position
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $71.06
- Potential profit
- $71.06
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Will the Conservative Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $27.51
- Potential profit
- $27.51
- User PnL
- -$24.48
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $849.62
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $776.61
Yes position
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $438.1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $437.13
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $379.25
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.8
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $213.24
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $113.4
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.66
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $85.54
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $70.33
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $52.54
Yes position
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.53
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$142.8
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$177.91
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$500
Yes position
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$549.37
Yes position
Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$686.02
No position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$821.46
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 27% 1,851.85 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 58.8% 8,569.52 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 60% 5,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes 76% 3,947.37 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 64% 3,569.51 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 72% 2,773.61 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 97.2% 2,055.26 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 55% 2,727.27 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 87% 574.71 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 97.3% 2,055.25 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 69% 347.83 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 69% 144.93 shares