Yes position
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $117.23
- Potential payout
- $488.44
- Potential profit
- $371.22
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- -$82.77
Polymarket Trader
JiacangSui3
0xd7c2cc2dcc2005719a7c2cd86b2f867640e55827
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $162.04
- Realized PnL
- $1.11K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 2
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $44.81
- Potential payout
- $44.81
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $8.74
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.12
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $162
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.8
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.99
Yes position
Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $41.12
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.41
No position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.29
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.82
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.37
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.02
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
No position
Will Jimmy Kimmel apologize by Friday?
Ends Sep 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.8
No position
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78
No position
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Yes position
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.3
No position
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
No position
Will Russia capture Sumy before October?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.34
No position
Russia announces air truce by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?No 80.5% 44.81 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 16% 200 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?No 93.8% 1.01 shares
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes 40.9% 488.44 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 30?Yes 33% 100 shares
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?Yes 2.7% 200 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 57% 670.05 shares
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?No 98.9% 385.84 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 46% 100 shares
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?Yes 1.2% 299.98 shares
- US forces enter Iran by April 30?Yes 59% 200 shares
- Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?No 90% 100 shares