Polymarket Trader

jurk0

0xd7ea6b24e73d178edfb9af838ede14debe72ea62

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.39K
Realized PnL: $3.68K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $350.99
Potential payout: $2.6K
Potential profit: $2.25K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$100.99

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $166.05
Potential payout: $899.99
Potential profit: $733.94
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 26.1%
Current value: $208.4
Potential payout: $800
Potential profit: $591.6
Multiplier: 3.84x
User PnL: -$13.8

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $712.31
Potential payout: $712.67
Potential profit: $0.36
User PnL: $172.06

No position

Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 70%
Current value: $490
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $210
Multiplier: 1.43x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $97.5
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $402.5
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: -$22.5

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $260.75
Potential payout: $431
Potential profit: $170.24
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $15.08

No position

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.6%
Current value: $369.1
Potential payout: $412.17
Potential profit: $43.07
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: -$5.96

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $182
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $218
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $118

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $104
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $296
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $47.2
Potential payout: $399.98
Potential profit: $352.78
Multiplier: 8.47x
User PnL: -$26.2

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $151.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $148.5
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $31.5

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $43.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $256.5
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$26.5

No position

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $299.85
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $0.15
User PnL: $83.85

Yes position

Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $45.05
Potential payout: $209.56
Potential profit: $164.5
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$20.8

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $107
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $93
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$21

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 15%
Current value: $30
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $170
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $56
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $144
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$18

No position

Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $177
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $23
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $43

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $115
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $85
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: $7

No position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $126.08
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $73.92
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $4.08

No position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $162.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $37.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $16.98

Yes position

Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $195.5
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$119.5

Yes position

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $87
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $113
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $882.75

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $371.57

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: $222.45

Justin Gaethje position

UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $190

No position

Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Ends May 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $174.15

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $160

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $135.28

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.3

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $133.08

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $117.43

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $114.05

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.73

Yes position

Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.11

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.1

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 67.5%
Multiplier: 1.48x
User PnL: $92

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.74

Yes position

Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.87

No position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83

Knicks position

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68

No position

Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.3

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 85%
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $53.16

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.43

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Yes 60% 400 shares
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?

No 24.1% 30 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 16% 300 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

Yes 17% 300 shares
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Yes 12% 500 shares
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score

Yes 47% 110 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 18% 600 shares
Spread: France (-1.5)

France 42% 120 shares
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

Yes 51% 200 shares
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?

Yes 94.8% 262.5 shares
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 21% 50 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Yes 24.2% 200 shares