Polymarket Trader

0xd85c744c901Fa99402E9c034CB657937e9E2F69c-1730847408933

0xd85c744c901fa99402e9c034cb657937e9e2f69c

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $266.49
Realized PnL: $1.83K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $33.43
Potential payout: $5.14K
Potential profit: $5.11K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$66.56

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $1.11K
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $774
Potential profit: $774
User PnL: -$100.62

Yes position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $65.2
Potential payout: $767
Potential profit: $701.81
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$16.51

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $51.02
Potential payout: $537.06
Potential profit: $486.04
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$73.7

Yes position

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $511.68
Potential profit: $511.68
User PnL: -$112.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $499.99
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$97.53

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Ends Nov 22, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $348.48
Potential profit: $348.48
User PnL: -$115

Yes position

Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $236.38
Potential profit: $236.38
User PnL: -$69.64

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.8
Potential profit: $209.8
User PnL: -$14.97

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$90

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $201.67
Potential profit: $201.67
User PnL: -$5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $196.89
Potential profit: $196.89
User PnL: -$98.44

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $182.68
Potential profit: $182.68
User PnL: -$95.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.63
Potential profit: $166.63
User PnL: -$5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $165.51
Potential profit: $165.51
User PnL: -$9.99

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.9%
Current value: $28.25
Potential payout: $157.81
Potential profit: $129.56
Multiplier: 5.59x
User PnL: -$78.9

Yes position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $88.59
Potential payout: $133.22
Potential profit: $44.63
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $8.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $123.05
Potential profit: $123.05
User PnL: -$59.07

Alex Pereira position

UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $119.61
Potential profit: $119.61
User PnL: -$61

Yes position

Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $117.65
Potential profit: $117.65
User PnL: -$20

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $189.16

Yes position

Will Elon say "DOGE" 7+ times during Baier interview on Thursday?

Ends Mar 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $180.81

Yes position

Trump ballroom project unblocked by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $168.99

Yes position

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.91

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.62

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $101.05

Yes position

Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.21

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. 49ers

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.53

Seahawks position

Seahawks vs. Patriots

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.8

Yes position

Will Trump say 'trans' during the 2025 State of the Union?

Ends Mar 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.1

Chiefs position

Bills vs. Chiefs

Ends Feb 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.49

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?

Ends Jan 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.49

Yes position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $61.79

Yes position

Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.53

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.63

No position

Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during conference with Putin on August 15?

Ends Aug 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.77

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8AM ET

Ends Aug 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.63

No position

Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation on December 17?

Ends Dec 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.4

Yes position

Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 19?

Ends Dec 19, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.8

Yes position

Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?

Ends Jan 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

Yes 60.3% 133.22 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes 53% 94.34 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 61% 83.61 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Alex Pereira 51% 119.61 shares
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Josh Hokit 80% 8.18 shares
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1.9% 1,052.63 shares
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 2% 2,511.8 shares
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes 1.9% 1,578.95 shares
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03?

Yes 62% 32.26 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Yes 17.3% 5.78 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Yes 24.4% 245.9 shares
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Yes 19.4% 10 shares