Polymarket Trader

CalOne1

0xd8b5d75749ecffa7602b466666db93860929b789

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $840.09
Realized PnL: $2.55K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.9K
Potential profit: $10.9K
User PnL: -$277.24

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.53K
Potential profit: $3.53K
User PnL: -$399.01

Yes position

Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.6K
Potential profit: $2.6K
User PnL: -$27.59

Yes position

Will RB Leipzig win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.45K
Potential profit: $2.45K
User PnL: -$19.61

No position

Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$906.29

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $34.75
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$287.53

Yes position

Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.26K
Potential profit: $1.26K
User PnL: -$32.73

No position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $74.36
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.06K
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: -$275.06

No position

Will Russia enter Novopavlivka by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $577.61
Potential profit: $577.61
User PnL: -$196.34

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $80.75
Potential payout: $556.9
Potential profit: $476.15
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$94.72

No position

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $428.99
Potential payout: $510.7
Potential profit: $81.71
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $17.27

No position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $338.92
Potential profit: $338.92
User PnL: -$18.3

No position

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Current value: $183.98
Potential payout: $243.68
Potential profit: $59.7
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $7.78

No position

Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $231.25
Potential profit: $231.25
User PnL: -$46.25

No position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $209.13
Potential profit: $209.13
User PnL: -$59.17

Under position

IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $181.82
Potential profit: $181.82
User PnL: -$20

No position

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $36.97
Potential payout: $164.32
Potential profit: $127.35
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$12.12

No position

Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $121.67
Potential profit: $121.67
User PnL: -$74

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $68.52
Potential profit: $68.52
User PnL: -$1.58

No position

Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $56
Potential profit: $56
User PnL: -$10.08

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.12
Potential profit: $35.12
User PnL: -$1.76

Yes position

Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $22.02
Potential profit: $21.72
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $13
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.9
Potential profit: $12.9
User PnL: -$0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $513.06

No position

Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?

Ends Sep 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $285.59

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $184.25

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $120.73

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $102.81

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $100.02

No position

Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.67

Yes position

Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $94.06

Yes position

Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.99

No position

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.46

No position

Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.34

Yes position

Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.4

No position

Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.7

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.02

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship?

Ends Sep 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69

No position

John Brennan federally charged by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $64.52

Yes position

Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $64.35

Yes position

Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $61.76

Yes position

Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $58.63

Yes position

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $56.8

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $56.04

Yes position

Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $52.86

No position

Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?

Ends Apr 29, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.2

Yes position

Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.46

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5

Under 11% 181.82 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5

Under 3.6% 220.79 shares
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5

Under 4.5% 220.79 shares
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?

Yes 3.3% 13 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 1.3% 740.49 shares
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

No 78.2% 50 shares
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

No 79% 20 shares
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 7% 800 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Yes 13% 662.76 shares
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?

No 33% 90.45 shares
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?

No 30% 28.57 shares
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

Yes 92.5% 90 shares