Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.56
- Potential payout
- $373.11
- Potential profit
- $372.55
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.44
Polymarket Trader
0xd90740d7d09D362B272906F2f48220C67d36d4f6-1779466749556
0xd90740d7d09d362b272906f2f48220c67d36d4f6
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $165.32
- Realized PnL
- -$95.71
- Win rate
- 21.1%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 19
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $67.56
- Potential payout
- $101.6
- Potential profit
- $34.04
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $47.56
Yes position
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85%
- Current value
- $35.59
- Potential payout
- $41.87
- Potential profit
- $6.28
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $5.59
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $16.48
- Potential payout
- $32
- Potential profit
- $15.52
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- $8.48
No position
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91%
- Current value
- $24.93
- Potential payout
- $27.4
- Potential profit
- $2.47
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $4.93
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $16.87
- Potential payout
- $22.64
- Potential profit
- $5.77
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $4.87
Yes position
Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $3.33
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $13.33
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.9
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.51
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49
No position
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 9?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$2.18
Yes position
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Multiplier
- 41.67x
- User PnL
- -$2.8
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$3.33
Yes position
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Multiplier
- 37.74x
- User PnL
- -$6.49
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.58
Yes position
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$17.86
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Another confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$48
No position
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$50
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?Yes 5.8% 294.78 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 25% 32 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 53% 22.64 shares
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?Yes 25.6% 86.46 shares
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 9?No 28% 3.57 shares
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May?Yes 17% 29.41 shares
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?Yes 23% 21.74 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Yes 10.3% 33.22 shares
- Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Yes 71.7% 41.87 shares
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Yes 30.1% 33.22 shares
- Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?Yes 1.3% 373.11 shares
- Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026?Yes 30% 16.67 shares