Polymarket Trader

JoachimMarnitzMARW2026

0xd95f942dbc4443df081aa978e192828fa970651a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.35K
Realized PnL: -$183.72
Win rate: 40%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 15
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $425
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $575
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$55

Yes position

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Ends Nov 30, 2026

Implied probability: 37%
Current value: $140.38
Potential payout: $379.4
Potential profit: $239.02
Multiplier: 2.70x
User PnL: -$28.79

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $124.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $175.5
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$17.82

No position

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $55.5
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $244.5
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $106.25
Potential payout: $250
Potential profit: $143.75
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $52.14
Potential payout: $217.26
Potential profit: $165.12
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $211.2
Potential payout: $211.31
Potential profit: $0.11
User PnL: $61.17

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $137.25
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $12.75
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $20.25

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 45.5%
Current value: $45.93
Potential payout: $100.95
Potential profit: $55.02
Multiplier: 2.20x
User PnL: $6.56

Yes position

Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $30.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $69.5
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$2.5

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $7.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $92.5
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$2.5

No position

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $17.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$4.5

Yes position

Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $0.41
Potential payout: $3.29
Potential profit: $2.88
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.05

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $243.51

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.5

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46

Yes position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.5

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$29

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$65

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$68

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$78.47

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$80

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$117.66

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$127.1

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$132

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Yes 41% 250 shares
Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?

Yes 10% 100 shares
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

No 20% 300 shares
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Yes 47% 47 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes 45% 200 shares
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Yes 24% 217.26 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes 49% 400 shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

No 78% 150 shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Yes 52% 200 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

No 58% 150 shares
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

No 48% 100 shares
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Yes 39% 68.75 shares