Polymarket Trader

marvin-abc

0xd9606a847d026c99c0162df8e11288471171ed40

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $33.6
Realized PnL: $256.8
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.6%
Current value: $23.33
Potential payout: $150.01
Potential profit: $126.68
Multiplier: 6.43x
User PnL: $9.68

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $57
Potential profit: $57
User PnL: -$9.78

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $2.47
Potential payout: $51.92
Potential profit: $49.45
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$2.4

Yes position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.7
Potential profit: $21.7
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.67
Potential profit: $21.67
User PnL: -$1.24

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.19
Potential profit: $20.19
User PnL: -$7.26

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $20.01
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$1.8

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $8
User PnL: -$4.78

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.74
Potential profit: $7.74
User PnL: -$3.55

No position

Trump kiss by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.24
Potential profit: $6.24
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6
Potential profit: $6
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $2.38
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.63
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $1.13

Yes position

Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $3.63
Potential payout: $4.35
Potential profit: $0.72
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $1.63

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.57
Potential profit: $3.57
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.33
Potential profit: $3.33
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $0.92
Potential payout: $3.13
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.94
Potential profit: $2.94
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will United States win on 2026-07-06?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $2.56
Potential profit: $1.68
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.56
Potential profit: $2.56
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.5
Potential profit: $2.5
User PnL: -$1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.28

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.51

Yes position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.39

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.49

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $11.11

Yes position

Will Gemini have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.41

No position

TikTok sale announced in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.32

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.14

No position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.6

No position

Bitcoin above $97,000 on December 27?

Ends Dec 27, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.76

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.26

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.95

No position

TikTok sale announced before April?

Ends Mar 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

No position

Trudeau resigns by Friday?

Ends Dec 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.86

Yes position

Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.8

Yes position

Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.74

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.63

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.54

Yes position

Trump imposes 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico before March?

Ends Feb 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.47

Yes position

Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.3%
Multiplier: 13.79x
User PnL: $4.31

No position

Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 86% 1.16 shares
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?

Yes 39% 2.56 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 52% 1.92 shares
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 32% 3.13 shares
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 65% 2.31 shares
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Yes 55% 1.82 shares
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?

Yes 39% 2.56 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 55.8% 1.81 shares
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 20% 5 shares
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Yes 25% 5 shares
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Yes 94% 6.29 shares
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?

Yes 48% 2.08 shares