Polymarket Trader

Retippppaksksk

0xd98e5c8d8de5921fac5b24f92ef913acdee69bb3

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.28K
Realized PnL: $1.06K
Win rate: 91.7%
Open positions: 10
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $1.2K
Potential payout: $1.51K
Potential profit: $301.14
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $923.88

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $268.17
Potential profit: $268.17
User PnL: -$141.86

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $154.18
Potential profit: $154.18
User PnL: -$98.67

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 43.5%
Current value: $48.33
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $62.78
Multiplier: 2.30x
User PnL: $18.33

Yes position

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 88.8%
Current value: $28.11
Potential payout: $31.65
Potential profit: $3.55
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $3.04

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.46
Potential profit: $23.46
User PnL: -$9.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.66
Potential profit: $16.66
User PnL: -$11

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.14
Potential profit: $14.14
User PnL: -$3.96

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$6

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.42
Potential profit: $12.42
User PnL: -$9.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.52

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.32

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $101.66

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $87.1

Yes position

Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.49

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 3?

Ends Jul 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.13

No position

Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.74

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 2?

Ends Jul 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.75

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.91

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 6?

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.62

Up position

Solana Up or Down - February 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.5

Down position

XRP Up or Down - February 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.55

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 5?

Ends Jul 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.44

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down on July 5?

Ends Jul 5, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.22

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.87

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.29

Yes position

Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.57

Yes position

Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1?

Ends Jul 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.05

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Up position

XRP Up or Down on July 10?

Ends Jul 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.32

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110K on July 10 at 5PM ET?

Ends Jul 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10AM ET

Ends Feb 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.45

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$8.34

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?

Yes 79.2% 31.65 shares
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Yes 27% 111.11 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Yes 68.5% 32.1 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 3.4% 694.47 shares
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?

Yes 74.3% 23.61 shares
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Yes 7.9% 694.47 shares
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

No 52.9% 268.17 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Yes 80% 177.32 shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31?

Yes 70.5% 177.33 shares
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Yes 13% 618.87 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

No 60% 342.56 shares
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?

No 38.5% 342.56 shares