BamseOgKylling

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $4.15K
Potential payout: $4.8K
Potential profit: $648
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $766.01

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $4.69K
Potential payout: $4.71K
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: $605.07

Yes position

Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $2.16K
Potential payout: $3.35K
Potential profit: $1.19K
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $318.77

No position

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.69K
Potential payout: $2.7K
Potential profit: $6.75
User PnL: $44.55

No position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $2.24K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $262.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $62.5

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 98.9%
Current value: $2.47K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $28.75
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $196.25

No position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $2.48K
Potential payout: $2.5K
Potential profit: $16.25
User PnL: $65.95

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $2.39K
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: $65.51

No position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.4K
Potential profit: $2.4K
User PnL: -$854

No position

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $1.29K
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $210
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $105

No position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $1.3K
Potential payout: $1.3K
Potential profit: $4.55
User PnL: $69.04

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $993
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $7
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will the Social Democrats win <35 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $755
Potential profit: $755
User PnL: -$371.18

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 13.9%
Current value: $96.95
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $603.05
Multiplier: 7.22x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 96.9%
Current value: $629.06
Potential payout: $649.52
Potential profit: $20.46
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: -$2.37

No position

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $524.91
Potential payout: $628.64
Potential profit: $103.73
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $43.5

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $417.51
Potential payout: $500.01
Potential profit: $82.5
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $67.5

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $470
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $30
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $491.49
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $8.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $14.5

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 7.8%
Current value: $38.75
Potential payout: $499.99
Potential profit: $461.24
Multiplier: 12.90x
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $475
Potential profit: $475
User PnL: -$135.39

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.8%
Current value: $287.59
Potential payout: $343.19
Potential profit: $55.6
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $78.13

Yes position

Will Liberal Alliance win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $275.31
Potential profit: $275.31
User PnL: -$38.48

No position

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$180

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.24K

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.55K

No position

France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $855.58

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $772

No position

Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $457.32

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $445

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $428

Yes position

Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $351.45

No position

Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $262.03

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $226.42

Yes position

Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $221.54

No position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $194.99

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.89

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.5

No position

Will Trump declare war on Iran by February 28, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $108.21

No position

US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107

Yes position

Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106.78

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $100.24

No position

Netanyahu out by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84

No position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74

Yes position

Will Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $71.06

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?