eitaneav

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Bill Hill advance from the AK-AL primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $6.3
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $53.7
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

Ends Nov 12, 2026

Implied probability: 56.1%
Current value: $28.17
Potential payout: $50.25
Potential profit: $22.09
Multiplier: 1.78x
User PnL: $4.82

No position

Will Parker Messick win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

Ends Nov 12, 2026

Implied probability: 95.6%
Current value: $46.82
Potential payout: $49
Potential profit: $2.18
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $30.17
Potential payout: $32.1
Potential profit: $1.93
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $31.03
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.78

No position

Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 90.7%
Current value: $27.21
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $2.79
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.7%
Current value: $1.63
Potential payout: $24.4
Potential profit: $22.77
Multiplier: 14.93x
User PnL: -$0.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $21.28
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 76.2%
Current value: $15.23
Potential payout: $20.01
Potential profit: $4.77
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $16.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $3.4
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.75

No position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Ends Aug 10, 2028

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $17.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $2.4
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.9
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $17
Potential profit: $16.07
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.43
Potential profit: $16.43
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $15.7
Potential profit: $15.6
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will the US recognize Palestine before 2027?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $13.88
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: -$0.07

No position

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $12.83
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $2.18
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 17.2%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.43
Multiplier: 5.83x
User PnL: $0.77

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.42
Potential profit: $14.42
User PnL: -$2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.5
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Mark Sutcliffe win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?

Ends Oct 26, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $2.35
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.65
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$0.05

No position

Will Movsar Evloev be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $6.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $3.75
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

Ends Nov 12, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $10.9

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.11

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.1

No position

Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $4.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.16

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.33

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.98

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.46

No position

Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?

Ends Dec 19, 2026

Implied probability: 41%
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $1.94

Seattle Mariners position

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.86

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 89.6%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $1.73

No position

Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61

Yes position

Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.55

Tampa Bay Rays position

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET