Yes position
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $7.89
- Potential payout
- $13.26
- Potential profit
- $5.37
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- $1.26
Polymarket Trader
0xdb0b...0157
0xdb0bb5c5d044008df317060d58222e5202d20157
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $111.66
- Realized PnL
- $175.06
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $7.06
- Potential payout
- $12.28
- Potential profit
- $5.22
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $11.29
- Potential profit
- $5.02
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $5.09
- Potential payout
- $10.95
- Potential profit
- $5.86
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$0.93
Yes position
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $9.8
- Potential profit
- $8.18
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$3.28
No position
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $5.92
- Potential payout
- $9.63
- Potential profit
- $3.71
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- -$1.01
No position
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $7.22
- Potential payout
- $9.44
- Potential profit
- $2.22
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $0.24
No position
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $3.58
- Potential payout
- $9.43
- Potential profit
- $5.85
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$0.94
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $7.68
- Potential payout
- $9.09
- Potential profit
- $1.41
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?
Ends Jul 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $4.82
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $4.19
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $0.41
Yes position
Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $3.2
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $5.81
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $9
- Potential profit
- $8.6
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.76
Yes position
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $1.66
- Potential payout
- $8.97
- Potential profit
- $7.31
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.4
No position
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $7.83
- Potential payout
- $8.75
- Potential profit
- $0.92
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $0.83
No position
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $8.18
- Potential payout
- $8.75
- Potential profit
- $0.57
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.18
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 48%
- Current value
- $4.15
- Potential payout
- $8.65
- Potential profit
- $4.5
- Multiplier
- 2.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Up position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?
Ends Jul 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 40%
- Current value
- $3.46
- Potential payout
- $8.65
- Potential profit
- $5.19
- Multiplier
- 2.50x
- User PnL
- -$1.47
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 58%
- Current value
- $4.72
- Potential payout
- $8.13
- Potential profit
- $3.42
- Multiplier
- 1.72x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $1.4
- Potential payout
- $8
- Potential profit
- $6.6
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$0.28
No position
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?
Ends Jul 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.7%
- Current value
- $5.32
- Potential payout
- $7.03
- Potential profit
- $1.71
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $6.47
- Potential payout
- $6.59
- Potential profit
- $0.11
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.53
Yes position
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $5.14
- Potential payout
- $6.38
- Potential profit
- $1.24
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $0.1
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $0.84
- Potential payout
- $6
- Potential profit
- $5.16
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.42
No position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57%
- Current value
- $1.74
- Potential payout
- $3.05
- Potential profit
- $1.31
- Multiplier
- 1.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.74
No position
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.43
No position
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.58
Yes position
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.41
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.39
Yes position
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.1
Yes position
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.91
No position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.88
No position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.86
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.73
Yes position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.66
Yes position
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $200 end of February?
Ends Feb 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.66
No position
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.63
No position
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.62
Yes position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.49
Yes position
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.15
Yes position
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.61
No position
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?
Ends Jan 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.45
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.27
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.23
No position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.07
No position
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.92
Yes position
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.89
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 8?Up 57% 8.65 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes 49% 9 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes 75% 6.59 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?No 77.2% 7.03 shares
- Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $180 Week of July 6 2026?No 35% 9 shares
- Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of June 22 2026?No 80% 7.09 shares
- Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 22 2026?Yes 49% 11 shares
- Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of June 22 2026?No 37% 10 shares
- Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes 79% 6.38 shares
- Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes 61% 8.13 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No 52% 9 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes 22% 6.36 shares