Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $5.52K
- Potential payout
- $6.99K
- Potential profit
- $1.47K
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$379.6
Polymarket Trader
hack-vc
@a16zSec
0xdb1b125189913bf03405e74cbf47273b4466efb5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.32K
- Realized PnL
- $49.73K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 5
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $75.08
- Potential payout
- $715.07
- Potential profit
- $639.99
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $42.23
Yes position
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 74.3%
- Current value
- $347.16
- Potential payout
- $467.24
- Potential profit
- $120.08
- Multiplier
- 1.35x
- User PnL
- $312.72
Yes position
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $370.05
- Potential payout
- $391.59
- Potential profit
- $21.54
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $69.42
Yes position
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $9.71
- Potential payout
- $190.75
- Potential profit
- $181.04
- Multiplier
- 19.65x
- User PnL
- $6.22
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the government shutdown end November 13?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.59K
Yes position
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.81K
No position
Zama auction clearing price above $0.05?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.65K
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16K
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.01K
No position
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.87K
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.23K
No position
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.8K
No position
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
No position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
No position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.16K
No position
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $936.74
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $905.08
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $842.52
No position
Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $791.01
No position
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $770.99
No position
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $717.32
No position
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $703.83
No position
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $597.12
No position
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $582.85
No position
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $514.3
No position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $498.68
No position
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $490
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes 25.1% 69.39 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 3.9% 100.26 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 4.5% 655.36 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 5% 6 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 6.1% 50 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 6.2% 70.1 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 6.4% 22 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 7.6% 45 shares
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes 7.7% 11.59 shares
- o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 91% 395 shares
- o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes 92% 88.5 shares
- o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes 88% 103.56 shares