No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $964.51
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $35.5
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $24.5
Polymarket Trader
0xDb8E40b3172AE802016c32e6c70d146F823F31F7-1765284847251
0xdb8e40b3172ae802016c32e6c70d146f823f31f7
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.51K
- Realized PnL
- $4.68K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $280.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $19.5
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
No position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $166
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $34
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.7%
- Current value
- $10.46
- Potential payout
- $185.19
- Potential profit
- $174.72
- Multiplier
- 17.70x
- User PnL
- $0.46
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $110
- User PnL
- -$5.5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $110
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.9%
- Current value
- $13.11
- Potential payout
- $102
- Potential profit
- $88.89
- Multiplier
- 7.78x
- User PnL
- $1.89
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $18.45
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $81.55
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.3%
- Current value
- $12.25
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.75
- Multiplier
- 8.16x
- User PnL
- $2.85
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.8%
- Current value
- $13.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $86.25
- Multiplier
- 7.27x
- User PnL
- -$2.25
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.1%
- Current value
- $8.05
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $91.95
- Multiplier
- 12.42x
- User PnL
- -$2.85
Yes position
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.7%
- Current value
- $6.65
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $93.34
- Multiplier
- 15.04x
- User PnL
- -$1.85
No position
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.08
- Potential profit
- $64.08
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 26?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $45.27
- Potential profit
- $45.27
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $11.55
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $22.93
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.12
- Potential profit
- $26.12
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.78
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.35
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $331.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $329.13
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $240.32
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.42
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $180.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.86
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $177.88
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
Ends Feb 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.77
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.4
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.4
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET
Ends Feb 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170.43
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $170
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
Ends Feb 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.42
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $167.67
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $164.18
Yes position
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $124.96
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $108.41
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $98.39
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.8
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Ends Feb 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $90.1
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 99.9% 31.57 shares
- Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No 96% 300 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.6% 300 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 95% 31.58 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 97% 20 shares
- Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June 13, 2026?Yes 97.4% 76 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No 99.9% 99.99 shares
- Will Iran Play in the World Cup?Yes 97% 89.35 shares
- Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 10.9% 100 shares
- Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 9.4% 100 shares
- Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 8.5% 99.99 shares
- Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550?No 68% 99.99 shares