Polymarket Trader

garbageth

0xdbbe9779bc00d8677b5b00140c06346853b617aa

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $498.74
Realized PnL: $191.68
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 11
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $319.95
Potential payout: $914.14
Potential profit: $594.19
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $202.21

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $6.1
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $193.9
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $59.73
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $6.27
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.29

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $42.75
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Fed abolished before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $32.1
Potential payout: $33.28
Potential profit: $1.18
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.6%
Current value: $1.38
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $28.62
Multiplier: 21.74x
User PnL: -$11.22

No position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $18.4
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $1.6
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $17.9
Potential payout: $17.9
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.52

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.5%
Current value: $12.08
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $2.93
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $0.37

Yes position

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $14.96
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.25

No position

OKX IPO in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 89%
Current value: $8.89
Potential payout: $9.99
Potential profit: $1.1
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $34.45

No position

Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32

Yes position

Yoon out as president of South Korea before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.69

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.97

Strickland position

UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.67

No position

Will Lee Jun-seok win less than 2% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Ends Jun 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.26

Yes position

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.9

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before September?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.59

No position

Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3

Yes position

Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Jan 24-31?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.8

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.32

Yes position

Will Lee Jun-seok win between 11% and 14% of the vote in the South Korea election?

Ends Jun 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Elon Musk attend a UFC event by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.8

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.28

No position

Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 6?

Ends Sep 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.21

Yes position

Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.07

No position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.86

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.58

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.31

No position

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

Yes position

Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.1

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.09

No position

Will Curtis Sliwa drop out?

Ends Nov 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.98

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Yes 98.1% 15 shares
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027?

No 90% 15.65 shares
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?

Yes 97.1% 17.9 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Yes 1.5% 82.12 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Yes 2.8% 36.24 shares
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Yes 5.5% 221.7 shares
Pharos FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Yes 10.6% 360.63 shares
Over $500k committed to the Pharos public sale?

No 1.5% 1,598.77 shares
Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

Yes 99% 32 shares
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?

No 10.8% 36.02 shares
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Yes 3.7% 30 shares
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Yes 20% 31.98 shares