Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $19.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $280.5
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$166.5
Polymarket Trader
stravid
0xdc65081231d30a2f38aeb8875fb1ae7123f8e355
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $445.79
- Realized PnL
- $783.95
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 11
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $203.95
- Potential profit
- $203.95
- User PnL
- -$196
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $143.83
- Potential payout
- $168.23
- Potential profit
- $24.39
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- -$6.67
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $8.72
- Potential payout
- $116.28
- Potential profit
- $107.56
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$41.28
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $105.69
- Potential payout
- $105.74
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $14.75
Yes position
Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.09
- Potential profit
- $102.09
- User PnL
- -$30.11
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $93.48
- Potential payout
- $101.06
- Potential profit
- $7.58
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$1.52
Y
Yes position
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $95.5
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Y
Yes position
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $66.58
- Potential profit
- $66.52
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.21
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $64.19
- Potential payout
- $64.94
- Potential profit
- $0.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $14.19
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $5.8
- Potential payout
- $16.35
- Potential profit
- $10.54
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.33
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $146.98
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $78.07
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.53
No position
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.54
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.13
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.77
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.79
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.14
No position
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.77
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.17
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.53
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.08
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.84
No position
Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.21
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.92
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.55
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $6.52
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 22-28?
Ends Dec 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.2
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.02
Yes position
US military action against Iran before August?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.91
No position
US strike on Mexico by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.27
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?No 94% 101.06 shares
- Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes 5% 100 shares
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes 10.9% 105 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 89.3% 105 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 77% 64.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes 43% 116.28 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes 60% 40 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 71.1% 109.75 shares
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?Yes 10.9% 171.58 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 86% 210.74 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes 94% 112.9 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?No 8% 49.18 shares