Yes position
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.67
- Potential profit
- $16.67
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
kellan84614
0xdc721d20d9b9453aec31b7c26323e50dc45075d9
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $39.44
- Realized PnL
- $2.31
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 4
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $8.47
- Potential payout
- $8.47
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $3.47
Yes position
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.9%
- Current value
- $0.9
- Potential payout
- $7.58
- Potential profit
- $6.68
- Multiplier
- 8.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.1
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $5.51
- Potential payout
- $5.95
- Potential profit
- $0.45
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $0.97
- Potential payout
- $5.88
- Potential profit
- $4.91
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$0.03
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.6%
- Current value
- $5.42
- Potential payout
- $5.67
- Potential profit
- $0.25
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20.7%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $4.83
- Potential profit
- $3.83
- Multiplier
- 4.84x
- User PnL
- -$0
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 26.2%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $3.94
- Potential profit
- $2.91
- Multiplier
- 3.82x
- User PnL
- $0.03
N
No position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $2.48
- Potential payout
- $3.45
- Potential profit
- $0.97
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $1.48
Yes position
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $2.63
- Potential profit
- $1.64
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.9%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $2.61
- Potential profit
- $1.62
- Multiplier
- 2.64x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 41.2%
- Current value
- $1.04
- Potential payout
- $2.54
- Potential profit
- $1.49
- Multiplier
- 2.43x
- User PnL
- $0.04
Yes position
Will England win on 2026-07-05?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $2.5
- Potential profit
- $1.51
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $0.94
- Potential payout
- $2.22
- Potential profit
- $1.28
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Jul 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $2
- Potential profit
- $1.83
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
Yes position
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?
Ends Jul 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 51.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.92
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- Multiplier
- 1.94x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
Ends Jul 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.85
- Potential profit
- $0.86
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $1.01
- Potential payout
- $1.67
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- $0.01
Yes position
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 60.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.64
- Potential profit
- $0.65
- Multiplier
- 1.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $1.61
- Potential profit
- $0.59
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $0.99
- Potential payout
- $1.47
- Potential profit
- $0.48
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 67%
- Current value
- $0.96
- Potential payout
- $1.43
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- Multiplier
- 1.49x
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $0.88
- Potential payout
- $1.41
- Potential profit
- $0.53
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$0.12
Yes position
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $0.71
- Potential payout
- $1.37
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1
Yes position
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-07-04?
Ends Jul 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No 17% 5.88 shares
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 90.2% 1.11 shares
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes 61% 1.64 shares
- Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?No 50% 2 shares
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No 88.1% 1.14 shares
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 20.7% 4.83 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 86% 1.16 shares
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 25.4% 3.94 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 13.2% 7.58 shares
- Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 45% 2.22 shares
- Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?Yes 73% 1.37 shares
- Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31?Yes 70% 1.43 shares