No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $136
- Potential profit
- $136
- User PnL
- -$44.88
Polymarket Trader
0xdc76...5f55
0xdc765e651a5ef31f5926daffcad93f62e08e5f55
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $90.84
- Realized PnL
- $114.01
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $101
- Potential profit
- $101
- User PnL
- -$23.23
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $81.01
- Potential profit
- $81.01
- User PnL
- -$31.59
Yes position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $8.63
- Potential payout
- $75
- Potential profit
- $66.38
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.38
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $6.27
- Potential payout
- $66
- Potential profit
- $59.73
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $5.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $44.25
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.9%
- Current value
- $4.66
- Potential payout
- $47.03
- Potential profit
- $42.38
- Multiplier
- 10.10x
- User PnL
- -$1.34
Yes position
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $5.31
- Potential payout
- $46.15
- Potential profit
- $40.85
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$0.69
Yes position
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $6.8
- Potential payout
- $34
- Potential profit
- $27.2
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.68
No position
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33
- Potential profit
- $33
- User PnL
- -$17.49
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $5.68
- Potential payout
- $31.58
- Potential profit
- $25.9
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- -$0.32
Yes position
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Ends Oct 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $5.84
- Potential payout
- $31.58
- Potential profit
- $25.74
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $5.27
- Potential payout
- $27
- Potential profit
- $21.74
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$1.49
Yes position
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $3.96
- Potential payout
- $24
- Potential profit
- $20.04
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $0.6
Yes position
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Ends Oct 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.7%
- Current value
- $5.94
- Potential payout
- $23.17
- Potential profit
- $17.22
- Multiplier
- 3.90x
- User PnL
- -$0.06
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$7.6
No position
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $2.47
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $16.53
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $4.59
- Potential payout
- $15.81
- Potential profit
- $11.23
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$0.47
Yes position
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $1.91
- Potential payout
- $15.31
- Potential profit
- $13.39
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
No position
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $1.54
- Potential payout
- $14.73
- Potential profit
- $13.19
- Multiplier
- 9.57x
- User PnL
- -$0.11
No position
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52%
- Current value
- $6.42
- Potential payout
- $12.35
- Potential profit
- $5.93
- Multiplier
- 1.92x
- User PnL
- $0.74
Yes position
Will Netherlands score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $1.22
- Potential payout
- $11.65
- Potential profit
- $10.43
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $0.16
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $2.53
- Potential payout
- $11.26
- Potential profit
- $8.73
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- -$0.51
No position
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $6.05
- Potential payout
- $10.71
- Potential profit
- $4.66
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $14.69
No position
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.24
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $9.35
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.88
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $7.68
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
No position
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.28
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.11
Y
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.4%
- Multiplier
- 3.09x
- User PnL
- $5.99
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.64
No position
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $3.52
Yes position
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $3.23
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $3.09
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.59
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.44
Yes position
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- $2.16
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 40.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.47x
- User PnL
- $1.96
No position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.65
No position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.61
No position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
No position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $1.38
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $1.33
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.07
Yes position
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Multiplier
- 16.67x
- User PnL
- $1.05
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?No 11.2% 14.73 shares
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Yes 87% 10 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?Yes 21.1% 21.61 shares
- Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes 25.9% 23.17 shares
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes 46% 24 shares
- Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 13% 15.31 shares
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Yes 13% 46.15 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No 78% 10 shares
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?Yes 76% 10 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?Yes 9% 66 shares
- Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?No 73.2% 10 shares
- Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?No 67% 10 shares