Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $43.55K
- Potential payout
- $43.62K
- Potential profit
- $65.43
- User PnL
- $4.6K
Polymarket Trader
0xdC83474BC4CDf4d037f8BE1EcA21cfa290aaBCD2-1772195983959
0xdc83474bc4cdf4d037f8be1eca21cfa290aabcd2
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $50.39K
- Realized PnL
- $9.82K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 10
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $4.58K
- Potential payout
- $4.7K
- Potential profit
- $119.85
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $212.67
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.3%
- Current value
- $1.91K
- Potential payout
- $2.35K
- Potential profit
- $440.9
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $141.76
Yes position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$16.48
Yes position
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $2.52
- Potential payout
- $1.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.68K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$16.37
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1.58
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.73
No position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $267
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $33
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $36
Yes position
Clavicular sentenced to prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Current value
- $17
- Potential payout
- $106.22
- Potential profit
- $89.22
- Multiplier
- 6.25x
- User PnL
- $2.12
No position
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $49.41
- Potential payout
- $49.88
- Potential profit
- $0.47
- User PnL
- $1.77
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.5%
- Current value
- $6.08
- Potential payout
- $15.79
- Potential profit
- $9.71
- Multiplier
- 2.60x
- User PnL
- -$4.03
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $870.21
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $858.43
Yes position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $750
No position
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $600.82
Yes position
Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $600.81
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $561.5
No position
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $530.11
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $507.08
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $436.51
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $341.33
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $325.68
Yes position
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.19
No position
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.95
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $222.33
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $150.31
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $111.52
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 24, 2026?
Ends Apr 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.09
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $64.36
No position
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $45.1
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $30
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.26
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.59
No position
Internet Access restored in Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $19.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Yes 14% 717.55 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 83.2% 9,918.32 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 94.7% 2,588.8 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 94.5% 13,178.17 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 98% 15,506.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 95.2% 149 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 82.8% 261.93 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 92.4% 2,449.89 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 25.7% 3,281.39 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 79.8% 2,321 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 27.5% 2,725.6 shares
- Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?No 72.7% 1,802.16 shares