No position
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $3.98K
- Potential payout
- $5.49K
- Potential profit
- $1.51K
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $1.48K
Polymarket Trader
TheAugur
0xdc8d49e3317dab913726f10c75a6dff742c784bc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $33.44K
- Realized PnL
- $54.58K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $3.81K
- Potential payout
- $5.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.31K
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $3.5K
Yes position
SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 83%
- Current value
- $4.15K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $850
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $3.47K
- Potential payout
- $4.28K
- Potential profit
- $813.52
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $795.09
No position
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $3.32K
- Potential payout
- $4.03K
- Potential profit
- $704.58
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $423.27
Yes position
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.1%
- Current value
- $1.04K
- Potential payout
- $3.97K
- Potential profit
- $2.93K
- Multiplier
- 3.83x
- User PnL
- -$620.47
No position
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $3.5K
- Potential payout
- $3.53K
- Potential profit
- $29.99
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.27K
- Potential profit
- $3.27K
- User PnL
- -$2.44K
Y
Yes position
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $2.32K
- Potential payout
- $2.65K
- Potential profit
- $331.25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $650.6
No position
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $2.49K
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- $98
Yes position
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $256.5
- Potential payout
- $1.9K
- Potential profit
- $1.64K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $9.5
Yes position
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $310.88
- Potential payout
- $1.59K
- Potential profit
- $1.28K
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$273.32
Yes position
Will Tucker Carlson attend the 2026 State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.36K
- Potential profit
- $1.36K
- User PnL
- -$101.63
Yes position
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 55.5%
- Current value
- $737.05
- Potential payout
- $1.33K
- Potential profit
- $590.96
- Multiplier
- 1.80x
- User PnL
- $126.16
No position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $1.3K
- User PnL
- -$220.66
No position
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $1.02K
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $59.35
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $121.38
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$399.39
No position
Will Mamdani cancel class Thursday for the Knicks parade?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $887.74
- Potential payout
- $910.5
- Potential profit
- $22.76
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $7.18
N
No position
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $608.71
- Potential payout
- $729
- Potential profit
- $120.29
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $84.14
Yes position
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $707
- Potential profit
- $707
- User PnL
- -$662.64
Yes position
Will three people dissent the March Fed decision?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $640.75
- Potential profit
- $640.75
- User PnL
- -$64.07
Yes position
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 92%
- Current value
- $552.91
- Potential payout
- $600.99
- Potential profit
- $48.08
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $31
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $582.37
- Potential payout
- $585
- Potential profit
- $2.63
- User PnL
- $149.47
No position
Tim Walz in jail by December 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $406.61
- Potential payout
- $439.58
- Potential profit
- $32.97
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $2.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.19K
Yes position
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.67K
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.56K
Yes position
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
Ends Aug 19, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.09K
Yes position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.52K
No position
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?
Ends Apr 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.25K
Republican position
House control after 2024 election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.68K
No position
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.63K
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.59K
Yes position
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?
Ends Dec 12, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.98K
No position
Weed rescheduled by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
No position
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.68K
No position
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?
Ends Jul 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.62K
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56K
Yes position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
Yes position
Markwayne Mullin confirmed as DHS Secretary by March 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
Yes position
Will Trump attend UFC 327?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.28K
Yes position
Will Hakeem Jeffries endorse Mamdani?
Ends Nov 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
No position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will the Moscow Stock Exchange market (MOEX) open for trading by March 25, 2022?
Ends Mar 25, 2022- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
No position
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Mamdani cancel class Thursday for the Knicks parade?No 96.7% 910.5 shares
- Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?Yes 99% 256.81 shares
- Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June?Yes 98.8% 591.08 shares
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?Yes 99% 199.93 shares
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?No 95.7% 5,431.02 shares
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes 65.6% 605 shares
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes 65.4% 50 shares
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes 62.9% 465.24 shares
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 23 and May 29?Yes 29.5% 48.32 shares
- Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?Yes 45.1% 116.86 shares
- Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026?Yes 55.7% 79.18 shares
- Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?Yes 98% 1,442.73 shares