No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.58
- Potential profit
- $59.58
- User PnL
- -$18.47
Polymarket Trader
outsideagency
0xdce8f29b8b5853faf6801ae2078fc013a2a1a40c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $171.85
- Realized PnL
- $43.19
- Win rate
- 85.7%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 7
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.39
- Potential profit
- $59.39
- User PnL
- -$21.38
No position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $58.91
- Potential profit
- $58.91
- User PnL
- -$19.44
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $32.91
- Potential payout
- $43.59
- Potential profit
- $10.68
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $20.27
Yes position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 51%
- Current value
- $20.72
- Potential payout
- $40.63
- Potential profit
- $19.91
- Multiplier
- 1.96x
- User PnL
- $9.75
No position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $36.12
- Potential profit
- $36.12
- User PnL
- -$14.97
No position
Iran closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $35.97
- Potential profit
- $35.97
- User PnL
- -$25.18
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.43
- Potential profit
- $33.43
- User PnL
- -$23.74
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $18.45
- Potential payout
- $32.08
- Potential profit
- $13.63
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- $6.26
No position
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.79
- Potential profit
- $30.79
- User PnL
- -$21.55
No position
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $22.3
- Potential payout
- $22.79
- Potential profit
- $0.49
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.26
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Current value
- $19.74
- Potential payout
- $20.03
- Potential profit
- $0.29
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $5.52
No position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 75.5%
- Current value
- $14.35
- Potential payout
- $19
- Potential profit
- $4.65
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $2.95
No position
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $6.69
- Potential payout
- $18.09
- Potential profit
- $11.4
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$4.89
No position
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.1%
- Current value
- $11.57
- Potential payout
- $18.06
- Potential profit
- $6.49
- Multiplier
- 1.56x
- User PnL
- -$1.94
No position
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 58.5%
- Current value
- $10.26
- Potential payout
- $17.54
- Potential profit
- $7.28
- Multiplier
- 1.71x
- User PnL
- -$2.38
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Current value
- $14.87
- Potential payout
- $17.39
- Potential profit
- $2.52
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $2.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.66
No position
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.04
No position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.69
Yes position
Will no one dissent the June Fed decision?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.78
No position
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $1.64
Yes position
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.02
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?No 60% 19 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No 69% 17.39 shares
- Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?No 72.1% 17.54 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 27% 40.63 shares
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?No 64% 18.09 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?No 38% 32.08 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No 29% 43.59 shares
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?No 74.8% 18.06 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?No 71% 20.03 shares
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 41.4% 36.12 shares
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?No 65% 21.98 shares
- Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?No 66% 22.79 shares