paulofnm

Implied probability: 1.4%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $83.33
Potential profit: $82.21
Multiplier: 74.07x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $72.15
Potential profit: $70.67
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$1.52

No position

Will Trump say "King" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.63
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in April?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $35
User PnL: -$1.05

Yes position

Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in June?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $24.99
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $21.49

Yes position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $19.99
Potential profit: $19.99
User PnL: -$3.18

Yes position

Will the US lose more than 50k jobs in April?

Ends May 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12
Potential profit: $12
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.76
Potential profit: $11.76
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?

Ends Jan 10, 2027

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $3.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.45
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: $0.65

Yes position

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.21
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" during King Charles visit?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Powell say "No Comment" during April press conference?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.9
Potential profit: $9.9
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.83
Potential profit: $9.83
User PnL: -$2.68

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9.76
Potential profit: $9.76
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $9
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in June?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $1.31
Potential payout: $8.2
Potential profit: $6.89
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $3.39
Potential payout: $5.17
Potential profit: $1.78
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.39

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $2.1
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $2.9
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: $0.1

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $69.46

Yes position

Will Robert Aramayo win Best Actor at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.4

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.3

Yes position

Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.8

Yes position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?

Ends May 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.16

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 77.4%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $9.92

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $9.58

Yes position

Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.71

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $8.13

Yes position

Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: $7.05

Yes position

Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?

Ends Dec 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

Yes position

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 16%
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: $6.67

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.09

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.9

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.89

Yes position

Kristi Noem out by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.75

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?