No position
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $182.12
- Potential payout
- $208.14
- Potential profit
- $26.02
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3.62
Polymarket Trader
TheLongRun
0xde2b4a6288c89bc5ee09a0d75a64c77745c32d21
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $577.2
- Realized PnL
- $868.89
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 18
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $30.13
- Potential payout
- $128.21
- Potential profit
- $98.08
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$19.87
No position
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.3%
- Current value
- $84.29
- Potential payout
- $99.99
- Potential profit
- $15.7
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $4.9
No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $45
- Potential payout
- $85.71
- Potential profit
- $40.71
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $15
No position
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $48.11
- Potential payout
- $53.19
- Potential profit
- $5.08
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $8.11
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$34.5
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $44.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $5.25
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $4.75
No position
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$42
No position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$37.5
No position
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $45.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $4.25
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $1.75
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.5%
- Current value
- $19.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $30.25
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- -$6.75
Yes position
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 48.5%
- Current value
- $23.1
- Potential payout
- $47.62
- Potential profit
- $24.52
- Multiplier
- 2.06x
- User PnL
- $3.1
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.8%
- Current value
- $17.65
- Potential payout
- $45.56
- Potential profit
- $27.9
- Multiplier
- 2.58x
- User PnL
- -$2.35
No position
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $36.55
- Potential payout
- $44.3
- Potential profit
- $7.75
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $1.55
No position
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.99
- Potential profit
- $29.99
- User PnL
- -$21.29
Y
Yes position
Will South Korea go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $21.37
- Potential profit
- $21.37
- User PnL
- -$9.4
Aurora Gaming position
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.89
- Potential profit
- $19.89
- User PnL
- -$8
N
No position
Will Japan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?
Ends Jun 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.71
- Potential profit
- $14.71
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $318.84
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.32
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.11
Yes position
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.39
Natus Vincere position
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.95
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.06
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Ends Jan 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.17
Spirit position
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.35
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.98
No position
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.24
Yes position
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.2
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.6
Yes position
Will more people travel on Thanksgiving than last year?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.37
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
No position
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.87
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.69
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.65
No position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.62
No position
Will Natus Vincere win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025?
Ends Dec 14, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.63
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.95
No position
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?
Ends Jun 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $4.5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 42% 47.62 shares
- Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 43.9% 45.56 shares
- Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?No 79% 18.99 shares
- Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 5% 1,219.51 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 75.5% 13.25 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 93% 50 shares
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsAurora Gaming 39% 7.69 shares
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsAurora Gaming 41% 12.2 shares
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?No 39% 128.21 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 35% 85.71 shares
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No 75.1% 39.95 shares
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsSpirit 56% 8.93 shares