Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.52M
- Potential profit
- $2.52M
- User PnL
- -$397.02K
Polymarket Trader
wan123
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.49M
- Realized PnL
- $2.51M
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- Current value
- $1.42M
- Potential payout
- $1.42M
- Potential profit
- $2.13K
- User PnL
- $1.19M
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $987.46K
- Potential profit
- $987.46K
- User PnL
- -$115.89K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $743.16K
- Potential profit
- $743.16K
- User PnL
- -$36.2K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $732.03K
- Potential profit
- $732.03K
- User PnL
- -$119.1K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $614.93K
- Potential profit
- $614.93K
- User PnL
- -$56.31K
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $562.41K
- Potential profit
- $562.41K
- User PnL
- -$59.2K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $552.41K
- Potential profit
- $552.41K
- User PnL
- -$128.56K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $77.51K
- Potential payout
- $442.9K
- Potential profit
- $365.39K
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- -$15.58K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $430.22K
- Potential profit
- $430.22K
- User PnL
- -$66.81K
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $324.79K
- Potential profit
- $324.79K
- User PnL
- -$66.83K
Yes position
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $324.18K
- Potential profit
- $324.18K
- User PnL
- -$146.83K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $309.43K
- Potential profit
- $309.43K
- User PnL
- -$40.86K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $275.96K
- Potential profit
- $275.96K
- User PnL
- -$9.95K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $270.94K
- Potential profit
- $270.94K
- User PnL
- -$24.27K
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $203.91K
- Potential profit
- $203.91K
- User PnL
- -$10.93K
Thunder position
Thunder vs. Spurs
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $187.9K
- Potential profit
- $187.9K
- User PnL
- -$42.81K
No position
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $169.85K
- Potential profit
- $169.85K
- User PnL
- -$15.96K
Cavaliers position
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $165.14K
- Potential profit
- $165.14K
- User PnL
- -$10.86K
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $162.84K
- Potential profit
- $162.84K
- User PnL
- -$20.21K
No position
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $150.59K
- Potential profit
- $150.59K
- User PnL
- -$29.93K
No position
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.86K
- Potential profit
- $149.86K
- User PnL
- -$45.79K
Timberwolves position
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $149.07K
- Potential profit
- $149.07K
- User PnL
- -$27.78K
Timberwolves position
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $145.5K
- Potential profit
- $145.5K
- User PnL
- -$20.55K
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $330.88K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $279.22K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $219.48K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $201.19K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.47K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.57K
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $131.25K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $122.51K
No position
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $121.02K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $112.25K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $75.25K
Timberwolves position
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $66.23K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.65K
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.99K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.74K
Timberwolves position
Spurs vs. Timberwolves
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $46.59K
Warriors position
Warriors vs. Clippers
Ends Apr 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.55K
Texas Longhorns position
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42K
Hawks position
Hawks vs. Knicks
Ends Apr 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.4K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $38.45K
Thunder position
Thunder vs. Spurs
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.94K
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.19K
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.69K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.67K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 30.5% 9,949.65 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 77% 22,722.2 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 32.6% 13,994.33 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 11.5% 6,395.11 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 13.2% 5 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 31.7% 27,249.6 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 10.8% 189,154.33 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 21% 100,000 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 50.4% 36,752.88 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 20% 1,534.29 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 14.1% 47,309.73 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 2,468.78 shares