Blackred

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $112.93
Potential payout: $225.85K
Potential profit: $225.74K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$154.48

Yes position

Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $232.82
Potential payout: $93.13K
Potential profit: $92.9K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$139.69

Yes position

Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $105
Potential payout: $70K
Potential profit: $69.9K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$35

Yes position

Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $60K
Potential profit: $60K
User PnL: -$420

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $53.62K
Potential profit: $53.62K
User PnL: -$1.57K

Yes position

Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50K
Potential profit: $50K
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $122.5
Potential payout: $35K
Potential profit: $34.88K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$167.12

Yes position

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $374.38
Potential payout: $29.95K
Potential profit: $29.58K
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: $44.93

Yes position

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $1.53K
Potential payout: $26.68K
Potential profit: $25.15K
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: $635.74

Yes position

Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $348.86
Potential payout: $24.06K
Potential profit: $23.71K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$37.92

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 9.9%
Current value: $2.06K
Potential payout: $20.9K
Potential profit: $18.84K
Multiplier: 10.15x
User PnL: -$219.28

Yes position

Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $1.02K
Potential payout: $18.99K
Potential profit: $17.98K
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$502.13

Yes position

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $232
Potential payout: $16K
Potential profit: $15.77K
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$56

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $982.49
Potential payout: $13.1K
Potential profit: $12.12K
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: $80.72

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.45K
Potential profit: $10.45K
User PnL: -$1.18K

Yes position

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.63K
Potential profit: $7.63K
User PnL: -$463.18

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $125.4
Potential payout: $7.6K
Potential profit: $7.47K
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$79.4

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $33.15
Potential payout: $5.1K
Potential profit: $5.07K
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$367.85

Yes position

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.92K
Potential profit: $4.92K
User PnL: -$332.21

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.94K
Potential profit: $3.94K
User PnL: -$615.78

Yes position

Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $129.71
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $1.87K
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$168.66

Yes position

New pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $153
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $1.65K
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.67K
User PnL: -$412.4

Yes position

Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.2K
Potential profit: $1.2K
User PnL: -$43.8

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.2K

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.49K

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.38K

Yes position

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $618.97

Yes position

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Implied probability: 33%
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $407.18

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $384

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $323.99

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $285.93

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.12

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $98

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 44%
Multiplier: 2.27x
User PnL: $92.49

Something position

Nothing Ever Happens: May

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $68.66

Yes position

Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.02

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Implied probability: 22%
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $60.81

Yes position

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59

No position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $55

Yes position

Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47.54

Yes position

Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: $34.36

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $27.2

Yes position

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.15

Yes position

Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the July Meeting?

Ends Jul 16, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $15.14

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?